[Analysis] "Bitcoin enters late stage of the cycle…capitulation pressure builds"

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a late-cycle “stress phase.”

A CryptoQuant contributor from TeddyVision wrote on the 3rd (local time) via CryptoQuant that “multiple on-chain indicators suggest the market is moving deeper into a late-cycle stress phase.” TeddyVision said that “the share of supply in loss has once again risen above 40%, increasing capitulation pressure,” adding that “short-term holder (STH) behavior is also gradually weakening.”

It also referenced whale (large investor) indicators. TeddyVision analyzed that “the ‘Exchange Whale Ratio’ is rising again,” meaning “large investors’ exchange activity is increasing in periods when prices are under pressure.”

It went on to note that “the liquidity environment is also defensive.” TeddyVision said that “the Coinbase Premium Index has remained in negative territory for an extended period,” and that “while stablecoin funds are flowing into exchanges, they are not translating into sustained spot Bitcoin buying.”

On Bitcoin supply dynamics, it said that “coin movement is slowing, with supply concentrating in older holding cohorts.” TeddyVision stated that this “can be interpreted as a signal that circulating supply is gradually starting to lock up,” adding that “taken together, these signals indicate that the current market structure resembles a typical pattern seen during a late-cycle stress phase.”

However, it emphasized that “the market has not been fully reset.” TeddyVision said that “indicators such as MVRV and investment intensity remain higher than levels typically seen at major cycle bottoms,” and analyzed that “the current situation may be an early stage of a regime shift rather than the formation of a complete bottom.” It added that “market bottoms tend to form when stress peaks and ‘stronger hands’ begin to absorb supply.”