U.S. Senator raises suspicions over an 'Iran prediction market'… "Misuse of inside information from the White House"

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy alleged that some White House officials used nonpublic information related to strikes on Iran to profit in prediction markets.

In a post on X, Murphy said on the 4th (local time) that “last Friday, a few people made unusual trades on Polymarket, betting more than $100,000 that the U.S. would attack Iran the next day.” Polymarket is the world’s largest betting site. Murphy claimed that “White House officials are secretly profiting from war,” adding that “the Iran war is creating a new form of corruption.”

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps recently identified six accounts believed to be White House insiders that are estimated to have generated a total of $1.2 million in profits from bets related to strikes on Iran on Polymarket. The wallets tied to those accounts showed that in most cases funds for betting were deposited during the 24 hours immediately preceding the strikes.

Meanwhile, according to Dune Analytics, Polymarket users put $425.40 million into geopolitical bets last week. That is more than 2.5 times the prior week’s $163.90 million.