Bitcoin retakes KRW 100 million amid reports of secret US-Iran contacts…$72,000 in focus [Kang Min-seung’s Trade Now]

As US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran entered a fifth day, reports of alleged back-channel contacts recently emerged, helping Bitcoin (BTC) reclaim $70,000. Analysts said whether Bitcoin can break decisively above $72,000 and hold there will be the key inflection point for further upside.

As of 18:30 on the 5th, Bitcoin was trading at $72,744 on Binance’s USDT market, up about 1.97% from the previous day (KRW 105.92 million on Upbit). The “kimchi premium,” which reflects the price gap between overseas and domestic exchanges, stood at -0.48%.

Mixed reactions to reports of secret Iran contacts…Treasury yields rise on inflation worries

Global equities and digital assets (cryptocurrencies) have rebounded after speculation grew that Iran attempted behind-the-scenes outreach via a third country. Still, concerns persist over a potential resurgence of inflation driven by a prolonged conflict and uncertainty around the interest-rate path.

Earlier, on the 4th (local time), The New York Times (NYT), citing anonymous officials, reported that “Iranian intelligence authorities made indirect contact with the CIA to convey an offer to discuss conditions for ending the conflict.” However, officials in the Trump administration denied the report, and the Iranian government also categorically denied any contact with the US. In the US Senate, a war powers resolution to limit President Trump’s military action failed, leaving his military discretion intact. Meanwhile, in Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, the late Ayatollah Khamenei’s second son, is being mentioned as a potential next supreme leader. This has also raised the possibility of a tougher external stance and an acceleration of the nuclear program.

Markets are reacting more sensitively to the risk of inflation re-accelerating if the situation drags on. As of 16:00, CME FedWatch showed a 97.3% probability that the policy rate will be held steady in March. In addition, in the fed funds futures market, the probability of two rate cuts this year fell to about 55% from 79%.

Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen from 3.961% on the 27th of last month, before the war, and is holding around 4.1%. Generally, rising Treasury yields are interpreted as a signal reflecting inflation expectations and uncertainty over rate policy, and can act as a headwind to risk appetite.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs flip to net inflows…signs of improving institutional flows

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows totaling $787.40 million last week (23–27), and inflows have continued this week. With the recent phase of outflows easing, flows are viewed as gradually improving.

On-chain data are also showing early signs of stabilization. In its weekly research report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said, “Spot selling pressure is easing from extreme levels, and the slowdown in ETF outflows alongside the resumption of early inflows is a signal that institutional sentiment is improving.” However, it added that “with the cost basis (average entry price) for short-term holders over the past 1 week to 1 month forming around $70,000, the $68,500 to $71,500 zone could act as a meaningful area of potential resistance and distribution during a short-term recovery.” Whether supply in that band is absorbed is expected to serve as an inflection point for the near-term advance.

Global crypto exchange Bitfinex said in its weekly research report that “since the 1st, as spot-market buying by participants has expanded, market buys totaling about $3.2 billion (about KRW 4.688 trillion) have accumulated across exchanges.” It added, “The fact that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium has stayed in positive territory for more than 72 hours suggests spot-led accumulation without leverage is flowing in.”

The Coinbase premium is an indicator of the price gap between global exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance; staying positive can be interpreted as US investors having the upper hand in net buying.

Expectations around the CLARITY Act have also come into focus. Earlier, on the 4th, President Trump wrote on Truth Social: “If the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act) isn’t handled, the crypto industry could be handed to China or other countries,” adding that “passing the CLARITY Act is the next step toward making the US the world’s crypto capital.” CoinDesk reported that “as speculation spreads that the CLARITY Act, a bill addressing digital-asset market structure, could be signed soon, Bitcoin is maintaining a solid tone and some altcoins are showing relatively stronger moves versus major assets.”

Against this backdrop, rebounds are appearing not only in Bitcoin but also across major altcoins. According to CoinMarketCap on the day, total crypto market capitalization was estimated at about $2.45 trillion (about KRW 3,589 trillion), up 1.8% from the previous day. On-chain analytics firm Santiment said, “A pattern is repeating in which accumulation by large holders increases during phases when retail investors step away from the market due to macro events such as war and tariff announcements, leading to price rebounds.”

“Bitcoin: watch whether it can hold a stable break above $72,000…key inflection point for further gains”

Analysts say that as Bitcoin enters a major resistance zone, both the potential for additional gains and the risk of a short-term pullback remain on the table.

Ayush Jindal, a NewsBTC researcher, said, “Bitcoin is strengthening upside momentum by re-testing resistance between $70,000 and $72,000.” He added that “for further gains to continue, the market needs a clear upside break and a subsequent consolidation above that area.” If upside momentum fades, he said, “the $72,000 and $70,000 support zones could be tested again,” adding that “whether these levels hold will be an inflection point for the short-term trend.”

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, said, “Bitcoin has returned to the $70,000 area and is approaching the 2021 and 2024 peak levels again,” adding that “the current rally is being driven by momentum and ‘FOMO’ (Fear of missing out—the anxiety of being left out while others are making money).” He cautioned, however, that “Bitcoin remains vulnerable to equity-market volatility,” adding, “we cannot rule out institutional investors reducing leverage, and it is still too early to call a bottom.”

Christopher Lewis, an analyst at DailyForex, said, “If Bitcoin breaks above $72,000 decisively, it would be a signal confirming buyers’ dominance,” adding that “$60,000 is still acting as a strong support zone.” He added that “even if a pullback occurs within that range, a strategy of using it as a buying opportunity could be valid if downside support holds.”

Technical analysis also points to the possibility of a pause after short-term overheating. Rakesh Upadhyay, a Cointelegraph researcher, said, “While the current move can be interpreted as a signal of buyers’ dominance, the fact that the relative strength index (RSI) has entered overbought territory suggests the possibility of a short-term correction.” He added that “even if prices pull back, the uptrend could remain intact if support is confirmed around $68,871.”

Meanwhile, in derivatives markets, attention is turning to the possibility of upside short (short-selling) liquidations. Bitfinex said, “Bitcoin has a concentration of short-position liquidations in the $72,000 to $74,000 range,” adding, “if price breaks higher through that zone, it could pass through a short-term liquidity gap and accelerate the pace of gains.”

Kang Min-seung, BloombergBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io