"Bitcoin enters a bear market…another 30% decline possible this year"

ZX Squared Capital, a crypto investment firm, said Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a full-fledged bear market and that further price declines are likely within the year.

According to CoinDesk on the 6th (local time), CK Jung, founder of ZX Squared Capital, said in an email interview that "Bitcoin’s price has clearly moved into bear-market territory" and forecast that "another decline of about 30% could occur this year" amid geopolitical factors such as the outbreak of a war with Iran. Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,000.

Jung pointed to the crypto market’s so-called "four-year cycle" as a key driver of the downturn. Bitcoin has historically followed a pattern of rallying around halving events—when mining rewards are cut in half—before shifting into a bear market. He said Bitcoin’s peak in October last year, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, aligns with past cycles (peaking 16–18 months after a halving, followed by about a year-long bear market).

He added that "because of retail investors’ herd mentality, the inertia of this four-year cycle is not easily broken," and said Bitcoin is still trading more like a speculative asset than a safe haven.

Limited participation by companies was also cited as a potential source of downside pressure. Jung said that "the combined scale of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and companies that have added Bitcoin to their treasury assets accounts for about 10% of the overall market," and warned that "if the bear market becomes prolonged, some companies could be forced to sell their crypto holdings to meet debt-servicing requirements, creating a cascading downside dynamic."