Stocks Whipsawed by Iran Crisis… “Money Moves Will Continue” [Weekly Outlook]

NH Investment & Securities sets KOSPI range at 5,400–6,000

“Short-term volatility is unavoidable, but an oversold-led rebound is expected first”

With the KOSPI retreating to the 5,500 level, the Iran situation is expected to remain a key variable for equities again this week (9–13). Still, buoyed by the government’s market-support measures, analysts say the “money move” (fund flows) into stocks is likely to continue.

According to the Korea Exchange on the 8th, over four trading sessions last week both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets saw three sidecar triggers and one circuit breaker activation. The U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran ignited war, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices surging.

Rising Middle East tensions are also expected to affect stocks this week. When a geopolitical crisis flares, downside pressure on equities intensifies; if the prospect of an early ceasefire grows, risk sentiment tends to recover. Jeong Hae-chang, a researcher at Daishin Securities, advised, “We need to watch whether the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. It’s also necessary to closely monitor trends in oil and natural gas.”

He added, “De-escalation through negotiations is a reasonable scenario,” but noted that “hardline remarks and displays of force could continue to increase bargaining leverage, and the resulting short-term volatility is unavoidable.”

On the 6th (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump made clear on the social media platform Truth Social that “there will be no negotiation with Iran except unconditional surrender.” He added, “After that, if Iran elects a great and respected leader, we and our many wonderful and brave allies and partners will bring Iran back from the brink of ruin.”

There are also calls to focus on stocks that have seen steep declines. Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “While the Iran situation has not been fully resolved, the market appears to have moved away from extreme fear,” adding, “A rebound is highly likely, led by oversold sectors and names.”

Na also noted, “After oversold sectors such as semiconductors, secondary batteries, autos, and power equipment rebound first, the uptrend could spread to financials, holding companies, and the KOSDAQ market, which have policy momentum (upside drivers).” NH Investment & Securities expects the KOSPI to trade in the 5,400–6,000 range this week.

The Democratic Party of Korea said it has introduced an amendment to the Capital Markets Act that would require listed companies whose price-to-book ratio (PBR) has remained below 1 for more than two years to mandatorily disclose plans to enhance corporate value. The aim is to prevent intentional share-price suppression and strengthen value-up factors for listed firms with low PBRs.

Yu Myeong-gan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, also said, “The money-move trend driven by earnings improvement, an equity-friendly policy stance, and expanding ETF investment by retail and retirement pensions will likely persist,” adding, “Short-term pullbacks stemming from Iran risk should be addressed via sectors that benefit from rising oil prices. Corrections in semiconductors, industrials, financials, holding companies, and KOSDAQ names should be used as buying opportunities.”

The Democratic Party of Korea said it has introduced an amendment to the Capital Markets Act that would require listed companies whose price-to-book ratio (PBR) has remained below 1 for more than two years to mandatorily disclose plans to enhance corporate value. The aim is to prevent intentional share-price suppression and strengthen value-up factors for listed firms with low PBRs.

Broadcom’s results beating market expectations are also cited as a positive. Broadcom’s fiscal 2026 first-quarter revenue came to $19.311 billion, up 29% year on year, and in particular, AI semiconductor revenue rose 106% year on year to $8.6 billion. Leveraging its chip-design capabilities, Broadcom develops custom AI semiconductors on contract for big tech companies such as Google, Meta, and Anthropic.

Na said, “With Broadcom presenting solid results and guidance (targets), we can expect an upward move not only in domestic semiconductors but also in AI infrastructure-related stocks,” adding, “Anticipation ahead of Nvidia’s developer event ‘GTC 2026’ could also be priced in first.”

This week, the U.S. will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI). Given that February West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices were lower year on year, February CPI is also expected not to deviate significantly from forecasts (a 2.4% rise year on year).

Jin Young-gi, Hankyung.com reporter young71@hankyung.com