Solana sees widening on-chain sell signals…low odds of a near-term break above $100

An analysis says that despite long-term fundamental expectations for Solana (SOL)—such as the expansion of tokenization markets and inflows of institutional capital—on-chain indicators are showing rising short-term selling pressure.

According to AMBCrypto on the 8th (local time), recent on-chain data simultaneously showed movement by long-term holders and increased exchange inflows, raising the possibility of a short-term downturn.

First, based on Glassnode data, the “Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)” indicator surged sharply on March 5. The metric rises when coins that have not moved for a long time are transferred, suggesting long-term holdings could come to market. The spike coincided with the time SOL prices were testing the $90 resistance level.

Over the same period, exchange inflows also increased. In general, rising exchange inflows are interpreted as a signal that sell-side supply is building. In particular, the analysis says this trend has continued since late January, after SOL fell below $100.

A shift was also detected in long-term holder behavior. The “HODLer Net Position Change” indicator had shown accumulation by long-term investors since last December, but it has turned negative over the past few days, indicating that some long-term holders have moved to take profits.

Taken together, the on-chain signals suggest it may not be easy for Solana to break above $100 in the near term. The explanation is that some investors could sell into price rebounds.

Still, a positive outlook is also being raised from a medium- to long-term perspective. The view is that factors such as the expansion of tokenization markets, increased use in payments, and inflows of institutional investment could serve as a foundation for growth in the Solana ecosystem.