Market on edge for US CPI this week… Volatility in Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP could widen
Summary
- US CPI and core CPI due this week are drawing attention as key variables that will determine the crypto market’s near-term direction.
- Despite easing inflation, it is still above the Fed’s target, raising speculation that the timing of policy rate cuts could be delayed.
- Depending on February CPI, Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP could see sharp volatility—either attempting to reclaim $70,000 or testing $60,000 support.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fluctuate around $67,000, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due this week is drawing attention as a key variable that will shape the crypto market’s near-term direction. With digital-asset prices having moved sharply in response to recent inflation data, market focus is intensifying.
According to Coinpedia, a crypto-focused media outlet, the US Department of Labor is scheduled to release February CPI and core CPI (excluding food and energy) on the 11th. The market expects February CPI inflation to come in at about 2.5% year on year, slightly above January’s 2.4%. Core CPI is also seen holding at around 2.5%.
These readings suggest that while inflation is gradually cooling, it still remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. That has also fueled market speculation that the timing of Fed rate cuts could be pushed back.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, which reflects rate expectations, the market is pricing about a 95% probability that the policy rate will remain in the 3.5–3.75% range for the time being. Generally, when rates stay elevated, liquidity tends to tighten, which can weigh on risk assets such as crypto.
The crypto market has recently shown a sensitivity to CPI releases. When January CPI, released on the 13th of last month, came in slightly below expectations, Bitcoin surged in a single day from about $65,889 to around $70,500. Over the same period, Ethereum (ETH) and XRP also rose about 5–8% in a day, marking a strong rebound across major digital assets.
Analysts say this week’s release could again amplify market volatility. If inflation prints below expectations, rate-cut bets could strengthen again, potentially allowing Bitcoin to attempt a move back above $70,000. In that case, major altcoins such as Ethereum and XRP are also likely to rise in tandem.
Conversely, if CPI comes in hotter than expected, expectations for rate cuts could retreat, weighing on the market. In that scenario, Bitcoin could be discussed as potentially testing the $60,000 support level in the near term.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
