Bitcoin steady despite rise in market fear gauge…defensive resilience amid Middle East tensions
Summary
- As Middle East tensions intensified and international oil prices surged, global equities turned defensive, but Bitcoin was assessed as maintaining a relatively resilient trend.
- Even with VIX at elevated levels, put-option skew in the options market has eased, suggesting no signs of excessive fear and that the market is bracing for the possibility of higher volatility.
- With March-expiry options open interest concentrated at the $75,000 and $125,000 call-option strikes, it said positions reflecting upside potential are being maintained despite macro uncertainty.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
As escalating tensions in the Middle East push global financial markets into a defensive mode, Bitcoin (BTC) is being seen as holding up relatively well, according to an analysis.
According to crypto trading firm QCP Capital on the 9th, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran failed to ease over the weekend, sending international crude oil prices above $115 per barrel. Concerns over disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and a broader spread of instability across the Middle East are weighing on markets, it said. Global equities have broadly shifted into a defensive stance.
Moves in traditional safe havens, however, diverged from expectations. As rising oil prices stoked inflation worries and pushed Treasury yields higher, U.S. Treasuries and gold prices came under pressure instead.
Instead, the U.S. dollar emerged as a key defensive asset. The fact that the U.S. is a net energy exporter and the high level of interest rates were cited as drivers of dollar strength.
Even in this environment, Bitcoin has shown a relatively stable trajectory. Despite the volatility index (VIX) staying elevated above 29, Bitcoin prices are viewed as remaining comparatively resilient.
The options market is also not signaling excessive fear. QCP Capital said, "recent put-option skew has moderated from the initial shock phase last week." This is interpreted as the market positioning less for a one-way plunge and more for the possibility of higher volatility.
Open interest in options expiring in March is currently concentrated in the $75,000 and $125,000 call-option strikes. That suggests some positions reflecting upside potential are being maintained despite macro uncertainty.
Meanwhile, key U.S. economic indicators due this week are also cited as an important variable. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on the 11th, followed by initial jobless claims on the 12th, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) price index and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on the 13th.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
