[Analysis] "Bitcoin 'Supply in Loss' rising…may signal an early-stage bear market"

Bitcoin’s (BTC) “Supply in Loss” has recently been on the rise.

Woo Minkyu, a CryptoQuant contributor, wrote on the 11th (local time) via CryptoQuant that “Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss has turned back up and is now approaching the roughly 40–45% range.” Supply in Loss is an indicator showing the share of total supply made up of Bitcoin purchased at prices higher than the current price. Woo said, “Historically, this zone has often appeared during bear-market transitions or phases of deep correction,” adding that “an expansion in Supply in Loss reflects a period in which market stress intensifies and realized losses increase.”

This suggests there is a strong possibility the market has not yet formed a bottom. Woo noted, “The current uptrend (in Supply in Loss) means many market participants are beginning to hold coins at a loss,” and pointed out that it “can be interpreted as a signal that market structure is weakening.”

He went on to stress that “historically, major market bottoms were often formed after Supply in Loss expanded to 50% or higher.” Woo analyzed, “As Supply in Loss increases, market stress is mounting,” and “if past patterns repeat, the current market may be in the early stage of a bear market rather than at a final bottom.”