"Wall Street money shifting from gold to bitcoin… target $84,000"

Crypto-asset (cryptocurrency) derivatives exchange BitMEX assessed that, amid geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, traditional financial capital is rapidly rotating from gold into bitcoin.

On the 12th (local time), BitMEX Research said in a recent report titled "The TradFi Bid is Back" that "inflows into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), MicroStrategy’s large-scale buying, and a 'supply shock' stemming from cumulative mined supply surpassing 20 million coins are converging, lifting bitcoin to $84,000."

The report noted that since the recent armed confrontation involving Iran, price action in gold—a quintessential safe haven—and bitcoin has diverged clearly. Since tensions escalated on the 24th of last month, bitcoin has risen 8.09%, while gold has instead fallen 0.42%, it said.

BitMEX said that "as the Strait of Hormuz crisis threatens logistics routes, shipping physical gold has become slower and riskier, while bitcoin’s ease of transfer—unconstrained by borders—is coming into focus," adding that "the flow of funds as institutional investors choose bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge is showing up in hard data."

Strong buying concentrated in the U.S. market was also cited as a key factor underpinning the bullish outlook. BitMEX said the Coinbase premium (price gap) phenomenon and sustained inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs are driving the market.

In particular, a premium forming in MicroStrategy’s preferred stock 'STRC' is seen as further intensifying buying pressure for bitcoin. According to the report, with STRC demand increasing over the past two days, roughly $130 million to $180 million in bitcoin buying power was created—equivalent to about 40% of the volume seen on days of large spot ETF inflows.

The supply-shock narrative that resurfaced as cumulative bitcoin mined supply topped 20 million coins is also acting as a tailwind. Bitcoin’s total issuance cap is 21 million coins, leaving only 1 million coins that can be additionally supplied to the market going forward. BitMEX said "this arithmetic constraint provides a clear psychological driver that leads retail and institutional capital to move to secure the remaining supply."

Based on this macro backdrop, BitMEX set a short-term bitcoin target of $84,000. The report cited the $67,000–$71,000 zone as the optimal entry point with the best risk-reward profile. By contrast, it recommended an immediate stop-loss if bitcoin breaks below $64,000—then a key support level at the end of February—on a daily close basis. The first profit-taking zone was set at $84,000, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the macro correction.