ARK Invest: "Quantum-computer hacking of Bitcoin is not an imminent threat"

Global asset manager ARK Invest said that advances in quantum computing pose a long-term challenge for Bitcoin (BTC) security, not an imminent, direct threat.

On the 12th (local time), ARK Invest said in a jointly published report with Unchained, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) financial services firm, that "today’s quantum systems are markedly lacking in the capability to compromise the elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC) that secures Bitcoin wallets."

The report projected that even if quantum computing reaches a level that could threaten Bitcoin, the risk would emerge gradually and would require attackers to incur enormous costs. It added that "if a major breakthrough in quantum computing occurs, broader internet security infrastructure would fail before Bitcoin," and that "before the threat reaches Bitcoin, a global coordinated response by governments, technology companies, and financial institutions would come first."

In the market, concerns have persisted that quantum computers could use formidable computing power to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic system. Earlier this year, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood advised cutting Bitcoin allocations by 10% and adding gold, citing the quantum-computing threat—stoking market jitters.

ARK Invest estimated that about 35% of the total Bitcoin supply is held in legacy addresses that could, in theory, be exposed to future quantum attacks. This includes 1.7 million BTC believed to be lost and 5.2 million BTC that could be moved to more secure wallets. About 1 million BTC reportedly held by Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, also falls into this vulnerable category.

However, ARK Invest said a so-called "Q-Day" (Q-day)—when the cryptographic system is suddenly breached—will not arrive all at once without warning. While expert estimates for the first attack range from before 2030 to decades later, it said the Bitcoin community would have enough time to upgrade the network to quantum-resistant cryptography and move assets to safer addresses.

The report said, "The fortunate thing is that we already know how to defend against quantum attacks," adding, "More than half of the Bitcoin supply is already stored in addresses that are resilient to quantum attacks, and the remainder would only be at risk upon reaching the third stage—when a quantum computer (CRQC) capable of cracking 256-bit ECC keys emerges."