XRP investors face mounting pressure with '60% in the red'…altcoin market stirs as Bitcoin rebounds [Kang Min-seung’s Altcoin Now]

As losses weigh more heavily on XRP investors, Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded, prompting some altcoins to post short-term bounces. Analysts say it remains unclear whether the upswing can be sustained.

“60% in loss territory”…XRP investors’ pain deepens as institutions add exposure

Ripple has recently been accelerating the expansion of its payments network alongside increased stablecoin liquidity. However, the picture is mixed for XRP’s price: investor losses are widening even as institutional inflows continue.

According to CoinMarketCap, a global crypto market data site, liquidity for Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD has surged from about $235 million last year to roughly $1.56 billion now. The industry says Ripple Payments’ cumulative processed transaction volume has also recently surpassed $100 billion, and it currently supports remittance and payment functions using fiat currencies and stablecoins in more than 60 countries. Last month, Ripple also added security and staking features to its custody service.

Still, analysts say investor pressure is rising despite the network’s growth. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode estimates that about 36.8 billion XRP—around 60% of the circulating supply—remains in loss territory. Unrealized losses total roughly $50.8 billion (about 76 trillion won).

Such a large overhang of underwater supply could turn into break-even selling pressure if prices recover, raising concerns. As of 6:30 p.m. today on Binance, XRP was trading at $1.43, up 3.96% from the previous day (2,100 won on Upbit). XRP is down 22.89% year-to-date.

Institutional flows, however, have continued. According to crypto-focused outlet Cointelegraph, Goldman Sachs, a global investment bank, emerged as the largest institutional holder of related products, owning about $154 million in spot XRP ETFs as of the end of last year. In addition, whale investors holding large amounts of XRP (wallets holding 10 million to 1 billion tokens) reportedly bought an additional roughly 4.18 billion XRP after the “mass liquidation plunge” in October last year.

James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on the 10th that “spot XRP ETFs have seen cumulative inflows of $1.4 billion since launch,” adding that “XRP has maintained relatively stable flows despite a major price correction.”

Bitcoin approaches the top of its range…will altcoin rebound signals emerge?

Analysts say that while Bitcoin has been consolidating near the top of its recent range, altcoins have also shown a modest rebound. Still, some caution that fresh inflows are needed to transition into a full-fledged uptrend.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said “Bitcoin has held the upper end of a range that has persisted for nearly a month around $71,000,” adding that “total crypto market capitalization is also holding at roughly $2.4 trillion, and altcoins are showing stable price action as well.”

He added that “the fact that Bitcoin is holding up relatively well despite a stronger dollar and weaker global equities is a sign that market sentiment has changed from before,” but noted that “to develop into a clear uptrend, the market will need new inflows rather than a rotation of funds among existing investors.” Recent rallies in some coins, he said, appear more like short-term spikes driven by liquidity rotation than by fresh capital.

On the macro front, escalating Middle East tensions are weighing on markets. After Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran’s new supreme leader, hardline remarks—including maintaining a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—have followed, pushing international crude prices back above $100 a barrel and increasing volatility in energy markets. In the U.S., policy uncertainty is also rising as debate in the Senate over the 'CLARITY Act,' a bill related to crypto market structure, may be pushed back to after April.

Some in the market also warn the rebound may lack a solid foundation. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said that “in bear markets, a pattern repeats where prices grind higher for months and then suddenly plunge,” adding that “key on-chain indicators such as the balance price are not yet sending a clear bottoming signal, so it would be premature to call a bottom based solely on the institutional inflow narrative.” Balance price is an on-chain breakeven metric that reflects investors’ average purchase price.

Crypto market maker Wintermute also said that “while additional selling pressure has temporarily eased, buyers with conviction have not yet emerged in earnest,” adding that “crypto is holding up while narrowing the gap with other risk assets, but it is uncertain whether this will persist even if trading volumes pick up meaningfully.” It also said the scheduled March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 18th could serve as a catalyst shaping near-term market direction.

Some also expect that if an uptrend takes shape, gains in altcoins could expand significantly. Crypto strategist Michael van de Poppe said that “as long as Bitcoin holds the short-term support level ($68,133), additional momentum could come in,” adding that “while Bitcoin is building a base within a range, market strength is rotating into some altcoins.”

He said that “altcoin market capitalization is holding a key support level,” and projected that “there is about 20–30% room to the major resistance level by market cap, and in that process some altcoins could post rallies in the 30–50% range.”

Kang Min-seung, BloombergBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io