PiCK

"A full-fledged Bitcoin rebound likely in the second half"

Source

JOON HYOUNG LEE

Summary

Bitcoin is trading sideways around $70,000 and failed to break above the key resistance level of $73,000, the report said.
It noted that a combination of rising global oil prices, inflation, and concerns over delayed rate cuts is weighing on Bitcoin risk appetite amid Extreme Fear.
The report said the market expects a full-fledged Bitcoin rebound only in the second half of the year, against the backdrop of the Fed’s rate-cut timing being pushed back to September, upward revisions to oil price forecasts, and the U.S. midterm elections.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Crypto Now

Failed to break above the key resistance level of $73,000

In the 'Extreme Fear' zone so far this month

Bitcoin, which had been swinging on spillovers from Iran-linked tensions in the Middle East, is now moving sideways around $70,000. The market is increasingly looking to the second half of the year for a more meaningful rebound.

According to CoinMarketCap on the 15th, Bitcoin climbed this week from the mid-$60,000 range to the low-$70,000s, then continued to trade in a sideways pattern. Expectations that the Iran war could end early are seen as having provided upside momentum. In Korea, it is trading around 100 million won.

Bitcoin briefly reached $73,000—seen as a key resistance level—on the 13th before quickly retreating. Alternative.me shows the crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in the 'Extreme Fear' zone so far this month. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said, "Bitcoin’s attempts to break above $70,000 have repeatedly failed," adding that "geopolitical uncertainty is amplifying downside risks."

Rising global oil prices are also cited as a factor increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin. Higher oil prices are stoking concerns over inflation and delayed rate cuts, weighing on risk appetite for Bitcoin, a risk asset. Oil has recently moved back above $100 a barrel despite the International Energy Agency (IEA) deciding on a large release from strategic petroleum reserves. Experts say such releases alone are likely to be insufficient to fully offset supply shortfalls stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Ultimately, some analysts say a full-fledged rebound across the crypto market, including Bitcoin, may only be possible in the second half of this year. That view is reinforced by Goldman Sachs, which pushed back its expected timing for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin cutting its policy rate from June to September to reflect inflation concerns tied to the Middle East conflict. Goldman also raised its oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of this year.

The U.S. midterm elections in November are also being cited as a variable that could influence the Bitcoin market. Binance Research, the research arm of global crypto exchange Binance, said, "Historically, markets have often seen strong rallying once election results are finalized and political uncertainty is resolved."

Lee Jun-hyung, BloomingBit reporter gilson@bloomingbit.io

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