Gold, US stocks weaken amid Middle East tensions…Bitcoin up 14% over two weeks

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify, traditional safe-haven asset gold and US equities came under pressure, while Bitcoin (BTC) appears to have maintained its upward momentum. Markets are increasingly seeing a recurring pattern in which Bitcoin posts relatively strong returns during periods of geopolitical crisis.

According to CoinMarketCap, a global crypto market data site, Bitcoin’s price rose about 14% over roughly two weeks after the US carried out airstrikes on Iran on the 28th of last month. Over the same period, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index and gold prices fell by about 3% and 4%, respectively.

Similar dynamics have been observed in past geopolitical stress episodes. Over the 60 days after President Trump announced sweeping tariff measures in April last year, Bitcoin gained about 24%. By contrast, gold and the S&P 500 posted more modest increases of about 8% and 4%, respectively.

In the 60 days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin also climbed about 32%, delivering the highest return among major assets. Over the same period, the S&P 500 rose about 3%, while gold prices fell about 11%.

Some market participants argue that when geopolitical tensions rise, a portion of funds tends to rotate into Bitcoin. Even after the US attacked Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran’s crude oil exports, Bitcoin held in the $70,000 range, showing a comparatively stable trend.

The crypto market’s 24-hour trading structure is also cited as a factor reinforcing this pattern. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), cumulative trading volume in a WTI (West Texas Intermediate) perpetual futures crypto product listed on crypto derivatives exchange Hyperliquid surged from $339 million on the 28th of last month to $7.3 billion on the 13th of last month.

This is seen as reflecting the tendency of investors to rapidly scale up trading when geopolitical events occur, given the crypto market’s lack of weekends and market-close hours.

Crypto-focused media outlet CoinDesk said that “major crypto assets posted weekly gains even as the war has not eased but rather intensified,” adding that a “sell on the news” strategy—selling when headlines hit—also appears to be weakening compared with the past.