Commodities come into focus amid Middle East tensions… Bitcoin stuck in a $60,000–$75,000 range

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, an analysis suggests global capital is shifting into commodity markets such as crude oil and metals. Bitcoin (BTC) has remained range-bound between $60,000 and $75,000 for most of this year, failing to show a clear direction.

According to Bloomberg on the 16th, analysis shows that despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin has traded within roughly the $60,000–$75,000 band this year without forming a distinct uptrend. At one point during the day, Bitcoin rose about 3.6% to around $73,600, but later gave back part of those gains.

The market is also seeing the view that recent rebounds have repeatedly amounted to only short-lived rallies. Jasper de Maere, a desk strategist and over-the-counter (OTC) trader at Wintermute, said, “Each time Bitcoin rises, open interest increases and funding rates tilt negative, then prices rise again on short-liquidation—a pattern that keeps repeating.”

Negative funding rates mean investors maintaining short positions are paying costs, which suggests bearish sentiment is taking hold across the market.

Trading liquidity has also declined compared with the previous cycle. De Maere said, “Market liquidity is thinner now than when Bitcoin traded for months in the $85,000–$95,000 range in late 2025,” adding, “This could lead to greater price volatility.”

Some in the market say this is a classic pattern that also appeared in past bear markets. Andrejka Kobalik, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said, “After a sharp drop, we see about a 20% rebound followed by another period of stagnation, repeating,” adding, “The market currently lacks strong upside momentum.”

The recent shift of global capital into commodity markets is also being cited as a headwind for Bitcoin. After the United States and Israel attacked Iran, oil prices surged from around $70 per barrel to $120, and are now trading near $100. Aluminum prices are also near record highs.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer (CSO) at Carlyle Energy Pathways, described this as the “revenge of the old economy,” saying there is a move toward favoring real assets such as metals, gold and crude oil.

Still, some say Bitcoin has not fully turned into a risk-off asset. Carl Naim, chief commercial officer (CCO) at XBTO, said, “Bitcoin rose after the Iran conflict while stock markets fell,” adding, “This shows Bitcoin is evolving into a more mature asset that can move differently from traditional risk assets.”

In addition, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded net inflows of more than $2 billion over the past three weeks.

The outlet reported, “Market attention remains focused on commodity markets such as oil and metals,” adding, “Bitcoin has been relatively pushed out of the spotlight.”