PiCK
"Bitcoin at a test as it tries to clear $74,000…Risk appetite broadens for altcoins such as memecoins"
Summary
- Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to break above resistance around $73,000 and $74,000, and analysts said a successful breakout could open the way to $80,000.
- Memecoins and altcoins posted double-digit gains, with the altcoin season index at 48 and total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin expanding to about $1.1 trillion.
- Signals such as RSI-based overbought conditions, rising futures open interest, and downside hedge demand in the options market point to a mix of potential near-term pullbacks and ongoing protection against downside risk.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to break above a key technical resistance level around $73,000, altcoins—led by memecoins—are posting strong gains, widening the market’s risk-on sentiment.
According to crypto-focused media outlet CoinDesk on the 16th, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $73,000, and analysts say that if it breaks through $74,000 on rising volume, it could climb as high as $80,000.
CoinDesk said, "If Bitcoin breaks above $74,000 with strong volume, it could rise again toward $80,000, which previously served as support." Conversely, if the breakout fails, it could slip back into the $62,000–$72,000 range-bound zone that has persisted for more than the past month.
The market’s focus on the day is shifting from Bitcoin to the altcoin market. In particular, the rally in memecoins stands out.
Pepe (PEPE) has risen about 20% over the past 24 hours, while Bonk (BONK) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) also posted double-digit gains. Against this backdrop, the altcoin season index climbed to 48, and the total crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin expanded to around $1.1 trillion.
However, signs of short-term overheating are also being observed. CoinDesk reported that "based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the memecoin market has entered overbought territory, raising the possibility of a near-term pullback."
In the macro backdrop, a risk-asset bid is emerging. U.S. equity index futures rose about 0.5%, and crypto-related companies also advanced in premarket trading. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) gained about 3%, stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) rose about 5%, and Bitcoin-treasury strategy firm Strategy (MSTR) added about 4%.
Risk appetite is also evident in derivatives markets. Total open interest in crypto futures increased about 8% over 24 hours to roughly $112.34 billion.
In particular, open interest in Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) futures rose about 16% and 19%, respectively, marking the biggest increases among major crypto assets. This suggests strengthening investor preference for smart contract-based crypto assets.
Bitcoin futures open interest also rose about 5%. In Ethereum’s case, coin-denominated open interest expanded to about 14.34 million ETH, the highest level since September 2025.
Still, options markets indicate persistent demand for downside hedges. On derivatives exchange Deribit, put options in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options markets continue to command higher premiums than calls.
The outlet said this "shows that despite the market rebound, investors are still maintaining hedges against downside risk."
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
