Summary
- The prediction-market platform Polymarket said the probability that the United States and Iran agree to a ceasefire before April 30 was tallied at 36%.
- It added that the probability is down about 43 percentage points so far this month.
- It said the metric rose to more than 75% earlier this month, but has since fallen sharply.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Prediction-market data suggest the likelihood of the United States and Iran reaching a ceasefire before the end of April has diminished.
According to Odaily, a U.S. cryptocurrency-focused media outlet, Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, puts the probability that the United States and Iran agree to a ceasefire before April 30 at 36%.
That probability is down about 43 percentage points so far this month. The metric briefly climbed above 75% earlier this month, but has since fallen sharply.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
