Bitcoin’s ‘solo rally’ breaks above $76,000…next catalyst is ‘Powell’s words’

Bitcoin reclaims $76,000 for the first time in six weeks

Spot ETFs draw $970 million in just one week

FOMC on the 17th–18th…all eyes on ‘Powell’s words’

Expectations tilt toward “rate cuts will be delayed”

Bitcoin, which has been trending higher since the outbreak of the Iran war, climbed above $76,000 on the 17th to set a new six-week high. The move contrasts with weakness over the same period in assets such as gold and the Nasdaq index.

However, as concerns grow that higher oil prices could fuel inflation, some warn that Bitcoin’s rally could lose steam if the timing of US benchmark rate cuts is pushed back within the year—or if rates are raised.

According to the USDT market on global crypto exchange Binance, Bitcoin touched $76,000 intraday for the first time since Feb. 4. It has since given back some gains, trading around $74,300 as of 4:48 p.m. on the day.

After sliding to as low as the $60,000 level last month, Bitcoin has risen about 8% since the war began. Over the same period, the Nasdaq (-2%), the S&P 500 (-3%) and gold (-5%) fell. The move is seen as the result of investors rotating preemptively into risk assets such as Bitcoin on expectations that war-related risks will ease.

Institutional inflows are also on the rise. According to SosoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows for six consecutive sessions from the 9th through the 16th. Total inflows during the period reached $968.94 million (about KRW 1.4456 trillion).

ETF inflows are moving beyond simply providing downside support for Bitcoin, and are now acting as upside momentum. Rachel Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said “BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in particular accounted for about 78% of net inflows,” adding that it “appears to be buying based on institutional conviction.”

The variable is ‘Powell’s words’…rate path also in focus

Markets are watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the 17th–18th (local time) and remarks from Chair Jerome Powell. While a hold in the policy rate is widely expected, risk assets such as Bitcoin could take a hit if Powell strikes a hawkish tone.

Another key question is how FOMC participants will signal the future policy path via the dot plot. Goldman Sachs on the 12th pushed back its expected timing of rate cuts—previously June and September—to September and December, respectively. Morgan Stanley offered the same outlook.

Market pricing is even more conservative. In the fed funds futures market, the likelihood of a September cut is effectively not reflected, with only one cut in December currently priced in. Any additional cuts have been pushed out to late 2027 or later.

Some are even raising concerns about rate hikes. “The possibility of Fed rate hikes—something that was hard to imagine just two weeks ago—is being discussed,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. “While the likelihood of an actual hike is limited, some Fed officials have begun to consider the option.”

Hwang Doo-hyun, BloombergBit reporter cow5361@bloomingbit.io