Despite Wobbly Oil Prices... KOSPI Seen Opening Higher [Market Preview]

On the 18th, South Korean stocks are expected to open higher, supported by improving investor sentiment toward the semiconductor sector. While oil-price volatility stemming from tensions in the Middle East remains an overhang, signs of downside resilience in equities suggest sentiment is gradually stabilizing.

According to the Korea Exchange on the 18th, the KOSPI closed the previous session at 5,640.48, up 90.63 points (1.63%) from the prior trading day. The index rose about 3% in early trading, but trimmed gains in the afternoon as international crude prices rebounded. The KOSPI extended its rally for a second straight session. On the same day, the KOSDAQ ended at 1,136.94, down 1.35 points (0.12%) from the previous day.

Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indexes finished higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.10% to 46,993.26, the S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6,716.09, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.47% to 22,479.53.

Tensions surrounding the Middle East continue. International crude prices, which fell the previous day, turned higher again. Brent rose 3.2% to $103.42 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Exchange, while WTI gained 2.9% to $96.21 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The move is seen as reflecting geopolitical risks, including Iran’s continued attacks on the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a route cited as an alternative export channel bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Concerns over a prolonged war are also persisting after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized allies that refused to send troops to secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, equities are viewed as relatively resilient, building downside support. The reduced frequency of sharp sell-offs compared with early this month, when the war began, underscores that view.

At the single-stock level, semiconductors and other cyclical shares led gains. Micron Technology climbed 4.5% on earnings optimism, pushing its market capitalization above $500 billion for the first time. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines rose 6.5% and 3.6%, respectively, reflecting resilient air-travel demand.

Markets are also watching the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which runs for two days starting today. With a hold in the policy rate widely expected, the key question is whether policymakers will offer clues on the timing of the first rate cut since the Middle East situation escalated. If Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrains from hawkish remarks, the impact on equities is expected to be limited.

South Korean stocks are likely to maintain an upward bias, led by semiconductors. Overnight, the MSCI Korea Index ETF rose 1.00%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF gained 0.63%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also advanced 0.52%, supporting the improvement in risk sentiment.

Expectations are also building that a meeting chaired by President Lee Jae-myung on “stabilizing and normalizing the capital market” could serve as a policy catalyst. The meeting is expected to discuss four key reform measures: establishing market order, enhancing shareholder value, innovating the capital market, and expanding investment accessibility.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “President Trump is stoking fears of a prolonged war, but compared with early March, downside pressure on equities is easing,” adding, “Attention should also be paid to the capital-market meeting, which could provide additional momentum to the market.”

Reporter Park Ju-yeon grumpy_cat@hankyung.com