The 'two semiconductor heavyweights' are back on the bounce... Hopes rise for the KOSPI to "top 6,000 again" [Market Preview]

Attention is focused on whether the KOSPI can retake the 6,000 level on the 19th. As expectations build for improving conditions in the semiconductor industry, forecasts are emerging that equities could regain momentum. However, with international oil prices rebounding overnight amid an escalation of the war in the Middle East, volatility is also likely to increase.

The previous day, the KOSPI climbed back above 5,900 for the first time in 12 trading sessions. It closed at 5,925.03, up 284.55 points (5.04%) from the prior session. As gains widened intraday, a buy-side circuit breaker was triggered at around 2:34 p.m. It was the fourth buy-side circuit breaker this year.

Semiconductors led the market. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix also regained the 200,000 won and 1 million won levels, respectively. Samsung Electronics ended trading at 208,500 won, up 7.53%, while SK hynix finished at 1,056,000 won, up 8.87%. Combined, their market capitalization as of the previous day accounted for more than 40% of the KOSPI’s total. Investor sentiment was boosted after President Lee Jae-myung chaired a “meeting for capital market safety and normalization,” lifting the KOSPI.

The KOSDAQ also advanced, closing at 1,164.38, up 2.41% from the previous day. EcoPro rose 3.15%, EcoPro BM gained 1.55%, and Samchundang Pharm advanced 6.09%, while Kolon TissueGene fell 1.27% and Voronoi dropped 2.31%.

U.S. stocks in New York, often seen as a barometer for South Korean equities, fell across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 768.11 points (1.63%) to close at 46,225.15. The S&P 500 fell 91.39 points (1.36%) to 6,624.70, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 327.11 points (1.46%) to finish at 22,152.42.

International oil prices were the key driver of heightened market volatility. Overnight, after Israel bombed Iran’s largest gas field and Iran moved to retaliate by attacking energy facilities in neighboring countries, crude prices surged. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures jumped 4.13% to $100.22 per barrel, retaking the $100 level, while Brent futures ended the session up 7.75% at $111.40 per barrel.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also warned that rising oil prices could add to inflationary pressures and slow economic growth. After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the policy rate steady at 3.50~3.75%, he said at the subsequent press conference that there would be no rate cut unless economic performance improves.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “In the short term we may face an environment of elevated volatility, but South Korean equities are likely to remain on a recovery track with downside resilience,” adding, “Even after a recent string of price corrections and a subsequent increase in volatility, leading stocks such as semiconductors showed relatively rapid resilience in the rebound phase, and are expected to maintain that recovery strength going forward as well.”

Reporter Yang Ji-yoon yang@hankyung.com