"Hard for WTI to break back above $100... Possibility of an early end to the war"

Lim Jae-gyun, a research fellow at KB Securities, appeared on Korea Economic TV on the 20th and said, "When it comes to international oil prices, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) keeps getting stuck around the $100 level and is acting as a strong support," adding, "Even if the current situation continues, it will be difficult to move above $100."

Lim explained, "The intraday move last Monday—rising to as high as $120 and then falling back to around $100—underscores this," adding, "Oil price levels could change depending on whether Iran and the U.S. and Israel directly strike energy facilities."

He continued, "President Trump is urging Israel to refrain from attacking Iran’s energy facilities, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has also said Israel will no longer attack Iran’s crude oil facilities or gas fields," adding, "There was also talk that the war could end faster than people expect."

Lim said, "As long as the possibility of an early end to the war remains, further upside pressure on oil prices is likely to be limited," adding, "Ultimately, the direction of oil prices will be determined by whether Iran’s energy facilities are attacked and the pace of progress in negotiations to end the U.S.-Iran war."

● Key points

- International oil prices show a pattern of limited additional spikes, with the $100 WTI level acting like a strong resistance.

- In fact, prices rose intraday to $120 and then fell back to around $100, confirming overhead resistance.

- Oil’s direction is expected to depend heavily on whether there are direct attacks on Iran’s energy facilities and the risk of the war spreading.

- If expectations for an early end to the war continue, additional upside pressure on oil prices is likely to remain limited for the time being.

● Broadcast transcript

<Anchor>

International oil prices will likely fall only once the war ends, but I’m curious how much upside you see for oil prices.

And many people have said that even if the war ends, it would be difficult for oil prices to fall back to where they were before then. What do you think?

<Lim Jae-gyun, Research Fellow, KB Securities>

First of all, it depends on the extent of the war, and even if it continues, international oil price levels could in fact change depending on whether Iran, the U.S., and Israel strike each other’s energy facilities.

The somewhat positive point is that WTI keeps getting stuck at $100. Last Monday, it did trade as high as $120 intraday,

but after rising to around $120 it fell back to around $100, and $100 seems to be acting as a very strong support level.

Even if the current situation continues, I think it will be difficult to move above $100.

On top of that, the day before, President Trump has continued to urge Israel not to attack Iran’s energy facilities, but Israel, contrary to Trump’s remarks, attacked Iran’s energy facilities.

In yesterday’s case, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel would no longer attack Iran’s energy facilities, and in addition, he mentioned that the war could end faster than people think. So if, as now, the possibility of an early end to the war continues to hold, I think additional upward pressure on oil prices will be limited.

Reporter Ahn Ik-ju aij@wowtv.co.kr