Trump’s ‘ultimatum’ D-1… jitters over risk of escalation into an ‘energy war’

One day before Trump’s ultimatum

Iran also warns of “attacks on power plants in the region”

On the 22nd (local time), a cargo ship transporting vehicles in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is sailing through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz. Photo=AP·Yonhap News

Entering its fourth week, the war with Iran has reached a critical juncture one day before the deadline for the “ultimatum” put forward by U.S. President Donald Trump. The United States has stepped up pressure, warning it would strike power plants if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, for its part, is refusing to back down, raising the possibility of retaliation targeting power plants and energy infrastructure across the region. Fears are also growing of an “energy war” that could spread the conflict across the Middle East.

According to foreign media reports on the 23rd, President Trump warned Iran via social media (SNS) at around 7:44 p.m. ET on the 21st to “open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.” In Korea time, the deadline is 8:44 a.m. on the 24th.

As the deadline nears, U.S. rhetoric is also hardening. Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, appeared on Fox News on the 22nd (local time) and claimed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls a substantial portion of Iran’s key infrastructure and uses it to wage war. He then heightened pressure by citing Iran’s gas-fired power plants as potential targets.

Israel also signaled a prolonged campaign. Israeli military spokesperson Effie Defrin said in a media statement that military operations against Iran and Hezbollah would continue for several more weeks. He underscored the intent to press ahead, saying they were “weakening the terrorist regime day by day.”

Iran, however, has not softened its hard-line posture. According to AP, the IRGC said in a statement, “If power plants are attacked, Iran will retaliate by targeting the power plants of the occupying regime (Israel) and those of regional countries that supply electricity to U.S. bases, as well as economic, industrial and energy infrastructure in which the United States holds stakes.”

Iranian media specifically named 10 power plants in the Gulf region as potential targets, including the Barakah nuclear power plant in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also reiterated his determination to fight, saying, “Threats and terror only strengthen our unity.”

This has fueled assessments that if the United States actually strikes Iranian power plants, Iran’s retaliation could follow, making it impossible to rule out a worst-case scenario in which energy facilities across the Middle East come under a chain of attacks. Iran has previously responded to Israel’s strike on the South Pars gas field by hitting energy facilities in nearby Gulf states.

The battlefield situation is also deteriorating rapidly. According to The New York Times (NYT), the Israeli military launched a large-scale attack on infrastructure in Tehran on the morning of the 22nd. While it did not disclose specific targets, local residents reported widespread blackouts across Tehran following the airstrikes.

Iran’s state-run Fars News Agency reported that five areas in Tehran were hit. Other Iranian outlets also said explosions were continuing across the capital. In Urmia in the northwest, a residential building reportedly collapsed due to the strikes, and rescue operations are underway.

Damage was also reported in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency said a radio transmitter at a state broadcaster in the area was attacked, leaving one person dead and another injured.

Israel is widening the front, formally signaling plans to expand ground operations alongside attacks on key infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Iran is responding with missiles. Israeli military authorities said they were responding on the morning of the 22nd to intercept missiles launched from Iran. Residents were also urged to take shelter.

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran. One was intercepted, and the other reportedly fell in an uninhabited area.

Tensions are also rising over the possibility of direct U.S. involvement. Thousands of U.S. Navy and Marine Corps personnel are heading to the Middle East, and reports have also emerged that the United States has begun internal preparations with the possibility of deploying ground troops in mind.

An Israeli official, speaking anonymously to The Washington Post (WP), said, “The Marines aren’t coming as decoration,” adding that a scene showing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could serve as a “political exit” for President Trump.

Kim Dae-young, Hankyung.com reporter kdy@hankyung.com