US House lawmakers introduce bill to ban public officials from trading in prediction markets, aiming to curb insider trading

Legislative efforts to tighten regulation of prediction markets are continuing in US political circles.

According to Cointelegraph on the 25th (local time), US Representatives Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski introduced a bill that would prohibit the president and members of Congress from trading in prediction markets.

The bill, dubbed the “PREDICT Act (Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act),” aims to block profit-seeking through the use of nonpublic political information.

It would bar the president and vice president, members of Congress, and political appointees—along with their spouses and family members—from betting on outcomes of government-related events such as politics, policy and war.

It also includes penalties requiring violators to pay a fine equal to 10% of the contract amount and to return all profits to the US Treasury.

Rep. Budzinski raised concerns about the potential use of inside information, saying that in major events such as the possibility of war with Iran or periods of government shutdown, some investors have posted huge profits.

The bill comes amid a broader push to strengthen oversight of prediction markets. In the United States, controversy is growing as betting on sports, war and politics spreads on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

In fact, 11 states have recently been pursuing legal action against prediction markets, and two additional states are reportedly considering similar steps.

Regulatory moves are also continuing at the federal level. Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff previously introduced legislation to prohibit the listing of prediction-market products that resemble sports betting.