"Samsung Electronics to 320,000 won, Hynix to 1.93 million"…Why Nomura is out with a bold call

Nomura Securities: "KOSPI 8,000 still in play…semiconductors offset the oil shock"

Nomura Securities, Japan’s largest brokerage, said it is maintaining a top-end target of 8,000 for the KOSPI this year. The firm expects Korea’s semiconductor upcycle to lift equities despite the war risk between the United States and Iran.

"If the U.S.-Iran war eases within two months, limited impact"

In a report released on the 26th, Nomura Securities said it is keeping its existing forecast that puts the 2026 KOSPI target at 7,500–8,000. Although the U.S.-Iran war has amplified oil-price volatility, it argues that Korea’s semiconductor cycle will offset the impact.

The report spotlighted the AI investment cycle. Nomura said, "Big Tech companies’ artificial intelligence (AI) investment is far longer-lasting and more sustainable than a short-term upswing in oil prices," adding, "In an AI boom, semiconductors will establish themselves as the core leading industry."

It forecast that in the second quarter this year, prices for commodity DRAM and NAND will rise 51% and 50% quarter-on-quarter, respectively—well above its prior outlook.

On the U.S.-Iran war and oil as variables, it said they could be risk factors for the global economy, but if the situation calms within two months, they are unlikely to drag the KOSPI sharply lower.

Nomura said, "Higher oil prices and supply disruptions could translate into inflationary pressure on the global economy, damage corporate profitability, and weaken demand," but added, "If tensions between Iran and the U.S. ease within 1–2 months and oil stays in the $90–$110 per barrel range, a structural de-rating in Korean equities is unlikely."

Nomura added, "Korea is a major crude oil importer, but KOSPI earnings per share (EPS) in 2026–2027 are expected to be driven mainly by semiconductors, followed by financials, autos, and various industrials," and said it expects "a strong semiconductor cycle and Korea’s equity-market ‘value-up’ re-rating to serve as key medium-term drivers of Korean stocks."

It cautioned, however, that a prolonged conflict would be a headwind. If Middle East tensions persist for more than 2–6 months and oil becomes entrenched at $110–$130 per barrel, downward revisions to profit estimates across sectors would be unavoidable. Nomura said, "In that case, the KOSPI target could fall to 6,500."

"HBM, power equipment and ESS seen as promising…Samsung Electronics to 320,000 won"

By sector, it maintained a preference for AI-related themes. Key areas include high-bandwidth memory (HBM), power equipment, physical AI, nuclear power, and energy storage systems (ESS). It also cited defense, biopharma contract development and manufacturing (CDMO) and biosimilars, and K-content as promising sectors.

Nomura has recently been stepping up its upbeat view on Korea’s semiconductor sector. With semiconductor demand remaining steady while supply growth is being delayed, it expects profitability improvement to accelerate.

On the 24th, it sharply raised its target price for SK hynix to 1.93 million won from 1.56 million won. It projected operating profit at 256 trillion 2,280 billion won this year and 365 trillion 4,290 billion won in 2027—up 36% and 37%, respectively, from its previous estimates.

It has also been repeatedly lifting its target price for Samsung Electronics. On the 18th, it revised the target to 320,000 won. That followed an increase from 220,000 won to 290,000 won on the 12th of last month, marking another upward revision in just a month. Citing Nvidia’s announcement at 'GTC 2026' that it will adopt a language processing unit (LPU) in its next-generation AI chip 'Vera Rubin' system, Nomura said this could translate into a new foundry opportunity for Samsung Electronics.

Cindy Park, an analyst at Nomura Securities, said, "This year, memory companies are set to account for 64% of Korea’s total net profit, becoming a key pillar of growth," adding, "If corporate governance reform is implemented in substance, the Korea discount (the undervaluation of Korean equities) could be resolved, opening the door to the possibility of the KOSPI breaking above 8,000."

Meanwhile, the KOSPI is trading at 5,453.01, down 3.35% on the day. With Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—the semiconductor ‘top two’—plunging, the index has fallen below the 5,500 level. Foreign investors have expanded net selling sharply from the previous day, posting net sales of 3 trillion 793 billion won on the KOSPI, while institutions are also net sellers by 36.2 billion won. Retail investors are net buyers by 2 trillion 7,526 billion won.

By Han-gyeol Seon always@hankyung.com