[Analysis] "Bitcoin spot-demand recovery remains sluggish… a gap if Strategy slows purchases"

An analysis suggests that the recovery in spot demand for Bitcoin (BTC) from digital-asset treasury (DAT) companies and others remains slow.

A CryptoQuant contributor from XWIN Research Japan said via CryptoQuant on the 25th (local time) that “Bitcoin DAT demand is shifting into a structure that is excessively concentrated in specific participants.” XWIN Research Japan said, “Strategy accumulated about 45,000 bitcoins over the past 30 days, marking the fastest pace of buying in the past year,” adding, “By contrast, the purchase volume of other companies has fallen to around 1,000 bitcoins, down about 99% from the peak.”

XWIN Research Japan also noted that “participation has declined noticeably.” He said, “As the number of purchases by other (DAT) companies has dropped sharply from the peak, both capital deployment and market breadth are weakening,” and analyzed that “as a result, Strategy now accounts for about 76% of the bitcoins held by DAT companies.” He added, “Additional (Bitcoin) demand across the broader market has, in effect, largely disappeared.”

He also referenced on-chain data. XWIN Research Japan said, “The Coinbase Premium remains unstable,” adding that “this suggests that U.S.-led spot demand has yet to recover broadly.” He continued, “In other words, while certain large participants are supporting the market, overall demand is lacking in depth and diffusion.”

He stressed that “this structure carries both benefits and risks.” XWIN Research Japan said, “On the positive side, continued buying by large participants can support the downside in prices and damp volatility,” while noting that “(however) a healthy market requires dispersed demand across multiple participants.” He added, “The current structure shows ‘concentration,’ not expansion.”

Concerns were also raised about a potential gap in Bitcoin demand. XWIN Research Japan said, “If Strategy slows or halts the pace of (Bitcoin) purchases, the market could quickly face a demand vacuum,” adding, “The (market) may appear resilient on the surface, but in reality it may be a structure built on a very fragile foundation.”