Trump targets Iran’s pressure points, using a ‘strike pause’ smokescreen while sending ground troops

Trump pauses strikes again…a war with no exit in sight

It has been a month-long war pitting the words of U.S. President Donald Trump against Iranian drones costing $20,000 (about 30 million won). Iran, whose air and naval power was effectively neutralized immediately after hostilities began on the 28th of last month, deployed drones and missiles to attack Gulf states and effectively block the Strait of Hormuz. Each time the blockade jolted oil prices and financial markets, President Trump moved to calm markets by talking up the possibility of an end to the war.

Against that backdrop, Trump’s decision on the 26th (local time) to extend by 10 days the deadline for strikes on Iranian power plants was a largely foreseeable step. It came right after the Nasdaq index plunged 2.38%. Writing on social media, he said it was “at the request of the Iranian government,” adding, “We will suspend destruction of power plants for 10 days until 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 6 (9 a.m. Korea time on the 7th).”

It was one day before the expiration of the five-day strike pause previously granted to Iran. The move is being interpreted, for now, as a conciliatory gesture. With back-channel contacts for peace talks beginning, it is read as a signal that Washington will take time to engage Tehran in dialogue. April 6 marks the start of the sixth week of the war, aligning with the 4–6 week timeline Trump set when launching the conflict for bringing it to a close.

However, many also expect the U.S. to pair the new 10-day window with continued military pressure, given the wide gap between the two sides over Iran’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that day that the U.S. Department of War (Pentagon) is leaning toward deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops. Combined with 8,000–9,000 Marines and airborne troops already moving toward the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 20,000 ground forces would be assembled on the ground.

A closer look at the U.S. ‘ground-war scenario’ for Iran

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“The likelihood of an expansion of U.S. military action has actually increased.”

That was the assessment by political news outlet Axios regarding President Donald Trump’s 26th (local time) move to grant a 10-day strike pause. The outlet judged that while the U.S. will pursue end-of-war negotiations with Iran during the additional period, it will not simply wait for the outcome. Limited ground operations—such as seizing parts of territory to extract concessions from Iran—are being discussed as a plausible option.

◇ “Ground troops likely for limited, short-term operations”

The WSJ reported that “the Department of War (Pentagon) is considering an option to deploy up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to provide President Trump with more military options.” Analysts say the force would likely include infantry and armored units. About 5,000 Marines and 3,000 airborne troops are already en route to the Strait of Hormuz.

Axios, citing sources, also said the Department of War is preparing a “final blow” option, predicting the possibility of ground deployments and large-scale bombing operations. The Times of Israel, citing an official from a mediating country, reported that Trump appears to be leaning toward committing ground troops after judging that Iran is unlikely to accept the 15-item proposal put forward by the United States.

Military experts say the size of the prospective deployment suggests not a prolonged ground war but limited, short-term operations, because the troop levels are insufficient for a full-scale ground campaign.

The first scenario most frequently cited is a U.S. ground strike on—or occupation of—Kharg Island, the heart of Iran’s oil industry. Kharg Island lies about 24 km off Iran’s mainland and is key infrastructure through which roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports flow. CNBC reported, “Striking Kharg Island could instantly cut off Iran’s oil exports.” However, this could be highly likely to trigger fierce Iranian retaliation, raising the risk of escalation.

Another scenario is the occupation of Qeshm Island or Larak Island, key positions in the Strait of Hormuz. Qeshm Island is the largest island in the Persian Gulf and a strategic choke point that can control the bottleneck of the strait. In particular, with Iran having placed anti-ship missiles, mines and drones in underground tunnels, taking control of the island could significantly degrade Iran’s maritime interdiction capabilities.

Larak Island is a fortress of bunkers and warships that serves to monitor the Strait of Hormuz. Axios analyzed that “Iran has fast boats capable of attacking commercial vessels there,” adding that “seizing Larak could prevent Iran from attacking merchant ships and laying mines.” Another possibility is the occupation of three islands—Abu Musa Island and Greater and Lesser Tunb islands—between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran. Abu Musa is known as an Iranian forward base hosting missile and drone assets, as well as mine facilities.

◇ “Iran deploys air defenses on Kharg Island”

A raid into Iran’s interior to secure nuclear materials is also on the list of options. Experts have mentioned the possibility of special operations targeting more than 400 kg of reprocessed nuclear material held by Iran. However, some analyses say it is unlikely given the difficulty of pinpointing the material’s exact location and the need for sizable forces and sustained control.

In response, Iran claimed it has massed more than 1 million troops. Iran’s state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency cited military sources as saying that, in addition to organizing more than 1 million for a ground war, requests are pouring in from Iranian youth to join the Basij militia, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and regular army centers. Iran is also preparing for potential U.S. amphibious landings and airborne assaults on Kharg Island and other targets. CNN reported that “Iran has additionally deployed troops and air-defense assets, including man-portable air-defense missile systems (MANPADS), to Kharg Island.”

Previously, Iran had warned that if the U.S. attacks power facilities, it would retaliate by striking “energy infrastructure such as power plants and oil facilities in neighboring countries.” Experts warned that if ground-force deployment becomes reality, the U.S. could be dragged into a long war. Thomas Wright, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said, “We must not fall into an uncontrollable, protracted conflict by deploying ground forces on a large scale,” adding, “A safer strategy is to declare victory on the basis of current military gains—saying ‘we have achieved enough of our objectives’—and minimize military intervention.”

Noh Kyung-mok, International Desk Editor / Kim Dong-hyun, reporter / New York = Park Shin-young, correspondent autonomy@hankyung.com

Noh Kyung-mok, reporter autonomy@hankyung.com Kim Dong-hyun, reporter 3code@hankyung.com New York = Park Shin-young, correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com