A potential game-changer in the war… scenarios for a U.S. ground campaign

Kharg, which 'handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports'

Seven islands forming an 'arched defensive line' in the Strait of Hormuz?

As reports emerge that the United States has deployed about 7,000 ground troops near Iran, attention is turning to where any actual operation would focus.

The place long cited as a prime target is Kharg Island. Because roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports move through the island, occupying it could pressure Iran’s economy.

President Donald Trump has also said Kharg Island could be “taken out.” However, the possibility that destroying oil infrastructure there would delay postwar restoration and deliver an unavoidable shock to the global economy is seen as a key variable.

Kharg Island also lies deep inside the Persian Gulf, meaning a ground force would be needed to seize it. Airborne troops alone would struggle to sustain a prolonged operation, and moving naval vessels carrying heavy equipment would be essential.

The problem is Iran’s defensive line built along the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, military experts analyze that seven islands around the strait are emerging as the main targets.

On the eastern side of the strait are Hormuz Island, Larak Island, Qeshm Island and Hengam Island, while on the western side sit Abu Musa Island and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands. These seven islands are called Iran’s “arched defensive line” for controlling the strait.

In particular, because large tankers and warships must pass through the strait’s narrow shipping lane, they are structurally forced to pass by the three western islands.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has used these islands as military footholds to strengthen its control over the strait.

Experts say that if the U.S. military moves into a ground operation, securing these islands would be pivotal. Carl Schuster, former director of the Joint Intelligence Center at U.S. Pacific Command, raised the possibility that about 5,000 Marines could be deployed to seize the islands.

But the operational risk is significant. During entry into the strait, forces could be exposed to missiles fired from the eastern islands and threats from small attack craft. Cedric Leighton, a CNN military analyst, pointed to Larak Island, saying “(Iran) can block anything passing through the strait.”

An amphibious assault using vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and helicopters could also be vulnerable to air defenses, and after landing, troops could be exposed to drone and missile attacks launched from mainland Iran.

Some also argue that it would be strategically more advantageous to seize the three western islands, including Abu Musa, rather than Kharg Island. The reasoning is that this would secure control of the strait without directly damaging the foundations of Iran’s economy.

However, the area is also the subject of an ongoing sovereignty dispute with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and some point out that post-occupation handling could likewise become a diplomatic burden.

Shin Hyun-bo, Hankyung.com reporter greaterfool@hankyung.com