Won-dollar exchange rate surges again, could it become entrenched in the 1,500 won range
Summary
- The won-dollar exchange rate surged to 1,515.7 won, climbing to near the post-war outbreak peak (1,517.3 won).
- As Middle East tensions rise, oil prices and the dollar index are climbing, while continued foreign investors’ net selling is deepening won weakness.
- Research fellow Park Sang-hyun said the exchange rate appears to be settling around the 1,500 won level, and that if the Middle East war drags on, the 1,550 won level could become a psychological line in the sand.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Intraday at 1,517 won…yen also weakens
WTI futures break through $100 a barrel
With signs the Iran war could intensify, the “1,500 won exchange rate” is solidifying.
On the 30th in the Seoul FX market, the won-dollar rate finished daytime trading (as of 3:30 p.m.) at 1,515.7 won, up 6.8 won. That is just 1.6 won below the post-war outbreak record high close of 1,517.3 won set on the 23rd. After opening at 1,513.4 won, up 4.5 won, the won-dollar rate climbed to 1,517.1 won around 2:40 p.m.
The move is seen as driven by higher oil prices as tensions in the Middle East flared again, contrary to U.S. President Donald Trump’s insistence it would end as a short war. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose to as high as $101.92 a barrel, clearing the $100 level. Israel struck two nuclear facilities inside Iran, and the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missiles toward Israel, joining the Middle East war—stoking fears the conflict will not end quickly and pushing oil prices higher. Trump’s suggestion of the possibility of a major attack to seize control of Iran’s oil also weighed on the won.
Dollar strength was also pronounced, with the dollar index rising above 100 intraday. Heavy selling by foreign investors in the stock market added pressure to the exchange rate. Foreigners extended net selling for an eighth consecutive session in the KOSPI, dumping 18.6 trillion won worth of shares.
The yen, which tends to move in tandem with the won, also weakened, adding to the move. The yen-dollar rate jumped to as high as 160.458 yen in early trading, marking the highest intraday level in about 1 year and 8 months since July 11, 2024 (intraday high 161.757 yen). Park Sang-hyun, a research fellow at iM Securities, said, “There is a sense the exchange rate is settling around 1,500 won,” adding, “If the Middle East war becomes protracted, the 1,550 won level will serve as a psychological line in the sand.”
Reporter Shim Sung-mi smshim@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
