Bitcoin logs first monthly gain in five months…structural risks persist

Bitcoin (BTC) ended a five-month streak of monthly declines, posting a higher close for March on a monthly candlestick basis.

According to Bloomberg on the 31st (local time), Bitcoin rose 2.2% over March, marking its first monthly gain since September last year. Around the same time in Asian markets, Bitcoin traded near $68,000, while Ethereum (ETH) changed hands around $2,100.

Bitcoin benefited in part from an improvement in risk sentiment across broader risk assets after U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of an end to the Iran war.

Institutional flows also shifted. In March, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $1.2 billion, ending a four-month run of net outflows.

Still, the market remains cautious about whether this marks a trend reversal. Rachel Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said, "For Bitcoin to regain investor confidence, it needs to hold the $70,000 to $72,000 range on a sustained basis."

She added, "Over the past 12 months, repeated policy changes have led the market to adapt," explaining that "Bitcoin’s price is also moving within a limited range despite major news flow."

Optimism, however, persists. Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, said, "If geopolitical and macro uncertainty eases, long-term bullish drivers such as institutional adoption and regulatory clarity will come into play," adding that "Bitcoin could attempt to set a new all-time high."

In the options market, there are also signs of positioning for downside risks. According to derivatives exchange Deribit, put options worth $1.5 billion are concentrated around the $60,000 level.

Hayden Hughes, managing partner at Tokenise Capital, said, "In April, volatility could pick up again after an initial rebound," adding that "structural risks such as supply-chain issues and high household debt still remain."