PiCK
US intelligence agencies: “Iran shows little willingness to negotiate a ceasefire”…diplomatic solution faces headwinds
Summary
- US intelligence agencies said they assess Iran, seeing itself in a favorable position in the war, does not feel the need to accommodate US diplomatic demands.
- Experts said Iran views its nuclear program and ballistic missiles as key bargaining chips, making concessions unlikely.
- A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is widening instability in global energy markets, and major countries are preparing measures to brace for potential disruptions to fuel supplies.
Forecast Trend Report by Period



US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran currently has little appetite to actively engage in negotiations to end the war.
According to The New York Times on the 1st (local time), US intelligence services believe the Iranian government sees itself in a favorable position in the war and therefore does not feel the need to accommodate US diplomatic demands.
They said Iran has not completely shut down negotiating channels, but does not trust the United States and harbors doubts about President Donald Trump’s willingness to negotiate.
Iran has also rejected the US call for a ceasefire. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson pushed back on President Trump’s ceasefire request as an “unfounded claim.”
While the two sides are exchanging messages through intermediaries, formal ceasefire negotiations or discussions on ending the war are reportedly not under way.
Experts say Iran views its nuclear program and ballistic missiles as key bargaining chips, making concessions unlikely. Iran regards these as matters directly tied to national sovereignty.
Meanwhile, the prospect of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is also amplifying jitters in global energy markets. Major countries are moving to put in place measures to brace for potential disruptions to fuel supplies.

YM Lee
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