U.S. pressures Gulf allies to ‘back it’… Iran threatens retaliation if they join the war

DEEP INSIGHT

Gulf allies trapped in a dilemma

War between the United States and Israel and Iran has left Washington’s Gulf partners in an awkward bind. They include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. They expected military protection after hosting U.S. bases, but have been exposed to Iranian missile and drone strikes. Another concern is how to reset relations with Iran after the war.

In January, these countries publicly refused to allow their territory and airspace to be used for strikes on Iran, citing Tehran’s warning that “all U.S. bases and assets in the Middle East would become legitimate targets.” But such measures proved largely ineffective once the war broke out. Iran concentrated 60% of its firepower on the Gulf states, hitting them more than Israel. Hotels, airports, ports and water treatment facilities were attacked, delivering a severe economic shock as foreign investors pulled out.

CNN analyzed that “the Gulf states agonized over whether to anger their closest ally and security guarantor (the United States), or to risk the wrath of a powerful neighbor (Iran) they will have to live beside even after the war ends,” adding that “in the end, they chose to make no choice, but did not get the outcome they had hoped for.”

Another factor clouding their outlook is that diplomatic efforts to prevent the war failed to deliver results. According to Bloomberg, they had lobbied against the war for more than a year. When U.S. President Donald Trump visited the Middle East in May last year, they tried to bring him to their side by pledging investments totaling $3 trillion. But those efforts were undone when the United States launched a surprise attack on Iran without prior consultation with the Gulf states. Bloomberg reported that “the Gulf states are growing increasingly frustrated with the United States” and are “privately questioning America’s security guarantees.”

Gulf states also differ in how they plan to respond going forward. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain are among the hawks, arguing that Iran’s regime must be changed to eliminate the seeds of future wars. Oman and Kuwait, by contrast, say the Iran issue should be approached with caution.

Reported by Kim Joo-wan