Polymarket Prices Odds of WTI Surging Past $120 in April Above 70%

JOON HYOUNG LEE

Summary

Polymarket said the probability that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will top $120 this month has climbed above 70%.
WTI futures surged more than 13% from the previous session to above $110, while Brent rose nearly 8% to close in on $110.
Bloomberg and the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the Iran war is roiling energy markets, with U.S. crude exports set to hit a record high and the risk of an energy crisis at the worst level in history.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Amid a sharp rally in global oil prices, the probability on global prediction-market platform Polymarket that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will top $120 this month has risen above 70%.

According to Polymarket on the 2nd (local time), the odds that WTI will break through $120 this month stood at 70% as of the day—nearly double the previous day’s 36%.

WTI futures jumped more than 13% from the prior session on the day, climbing above $110. Brent, the international benchmark, also rose nearly 8% to near $110.

Bloomberg said “turmoil in energy markets has intensified due to the Iran war, with key U.S. seaborne crude grades trading at their highest premiums since the COVID-19 pandemic.” Bloomberg added that “exports of all types of U.S. crude are expected to hit a record high this month.”

Earlier, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), appeared on a podcast the previous day (the 1st) and said, “The energy crisis triggered by the Iran war is at the worst level in history,” adding that “April will be much more serious than March.”

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