Trump Vowed to "Cripple Iran’s Power" but… U.S. Intelligence Says "50% Still Intact"

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

U.S. intelligence agencies said Iran is still assessed to retain significant missile-launch capability and loitering munitions drone forces.
Intelligence sources said Iran uses an extensive network of tunnels and caves to conceal missile launchers, making precision strikes difficult.
An expert said Iran continues to have the ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz through drones and proxy forces, indicating it remains far from the complete neutralization of its naval power.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Contrary to U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran’s core military capabilities have effectively been neutralized, U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran still retains a substantial level of missile-launch capability.

Citing intelligence sources on the 2nd (local time), CNN reported that despite five weeks of concentrated airstrikes by the United States and Israel, Iran still possesses half of its missile launchers and several thousand loitering munitions drones.

In a televised address from the White House to the nation the previous night, President Trump said Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones had been dramatically curtailed, and that weapons factories and rocket launchers had been completely destroyed, leaving almost nothing. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) also announced as of the previous day that the United States had struck more than 12,300 targets in Iran.

However, an intelligence source pushed back, saying Iran’s military arsenal remains at a threatening level. One source told CNN, “Iran is still poised to wreak enormous turmoil across the entire region,” adding, “If you think this will be over within two weeks, you’re not in your right mind.”

According to CNN, intelligence sources cited “underground mobility” as a key reason Iran’s missile launchers have not been neutralized. They explained that precision strikes are difficult because Iran has concealed launchers within an extensive network of tunnels and caves built over decades.

Concerns were also raised about naval capabilities. Annika Ganzeveld, a Middle East research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told CNN, “Iran is still demonstrating the ability to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz through drones and proxy forces.”

She noted that it is unclear what exactly comprises the naval assets the U.S. military said it had destroyed, adding, “If the goal is complete neutralization, there are still capabilities left that must be destroyed.”

By Park Sang-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter highseoul@hankyung.com