Altcoins: 40% Near All-Time Lows…Will the Bear Market Become a 'Buy-the-Dip' Opportunity? [Kang Min-seung’s Altcoin Now]

Amid concerns that the U.S.–Iran war could drag on, the altcoin market remains in a bearish trend, with some tokens nearing all-time lows. Still, the view is that investors should prepare less for a short-term rebound and more for the possibility of further declines and heightened volatility.

Altcoins: 40% Near All-Time Lows…'Name-by-Name Divergence' Deepens as Liquidity Is Diluted

As name-by-name divergence deepens in the altcoin (crypto assets other than Bitcoin) market, a structural downtrend has compounded the weakness, with more than 40% of all tokens found to be at or near all-time lows.

According to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant on the 4th, more than 40% of all altcoins were tallied as having reached or being close to their all-time lows. That exceeds the roughly 38% recorded in the previous bear market. The market is increasingly viewing the broad erosion of individual altcoins’ downside resilience as becoming structurally entrenched.

This trend goes beyond a simple demand contraction and is also tied to shifts in market structure. As new token issuance increases, liquidity has been dispersed more widely, intensifying the phenomenon of "liquidity dilution," in which the density of capital flowing into each individual token declines. A clearer pattern has also emerged in which funds concentrate in a handful of names, widening performance gaps across tokens.

Darkfost, a CryptoQuant analyst, said, "With more than 40% of all altcoins having hit or nearing all-time lows, this figure exceeds prior bear-market levels," adding that "during periods of extreme price weakness, attractive entry points can emerge, particularly for crypto projects with solid fundamentals."

Grayscale, a U.S. crypto asset manager, also said in a recent report that "Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), as well as Chainlink (LINK), Sui (SUI) and Avalanche (AVAX), are trading at attractive levels in oversold territory."

Still, a more cautious view is also being raised that a low signal does not immediately equate to a buying opportunity. Crypto analyst Colintalkscrypto noted, "Unlike equities, crypto tends to form tops quickly, but bottoms form over an extended period," adding that "prolonged sideways action at the lows and market apathy can drive investors away and lead to the so-called 'death cycle.'" Crypto analyst Willy Woo also assessed that "a solid bottom has not yet formed, and the market is about one-third of the way through the bear market."

At the same time, the altcoin market is unfolding as a short-term trading environment in which name-by-name divergence is intensifying. Major altcoins such as APT(-15%), ENA(-18.5%) and SEI(-10%) are broadly showing bearish price action, while some names—SIREN(-82.7%), KITE(-38.3%) and RIVER(-29%)—have seen the magnitude of their selloffs expand. By contrast, among small- and mid-cap coins, sharp gainers such as STO(+109%), ONT(+100%), ARIA(+68.2%) and QRL(+48.4%) have been widely spotted, pointing to short-term inflows.

Altcoins Lack Direction Amid Weakness…A 'Volatility Compression' Phase Under Macro Risks

With Middle East–driven geopolitical tensions overlapping with uncertainty over interest rates and oil prices, the crypto market is extending its weak trend with little directional conviction. While the altcoin market appears relatively quiet on the surface, some interpret it as having entered a compression phase ahead of a volatility expansion.

In the near term, a cautious approach is required, keeping the possibility of further declines in mind. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said, "Total cryptocurrency market cap is sitting about 50% below 'fair value,'" adding that "from the current roughly $2.3 trillion level, the market could still fall toward the lower trendline around $1.5 trillion." He explained, "As Bitcoin set its previous all-time high ($126,200), the accompanying rise in altcoins was limited, and the market has since become more vulnerable to downside."

Recent geopolitical tensions are acting as a tangible headwind for the altcoin market. As the possibility of military conflict persists amid rising tensions in the Middle East, risk-off sentiment continues alongside higher oil prices and uncertainty over interest rates. At the same time, the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, has been delayed from being made public due to اختلافs over how stablecoin interest payments should be handled, adding to regulatory uncertainty. Some observers also suggest that if military and diplomatic issues affect legislative priorities, passage of the bill this year may be difficult.

Against this backdrop, some interpret the market as entering a phase akin to a "calm before the storm," ahead of a volatility expansion. Crypto market maker Wintermute said in its weekly report, "In the market, long (buy) and short (sell) positions are repeatedly rotated without direction, and no clear trend is forming," adding that "the leveraged market is in a state where energy is being built up without direction." It added, "Whatever catalyst comes next, there is a chance we see moves larger than what is currently priced in."

In particular, Ethereum—the "bellwether" among altcoins—is being cited as a leading indicator for gauging the broader market’s direction. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, said, "Short-term selling pressure increased after President Trump’s remarks on Iran," but added that "Ethereum is holding relatively firm above the $2,000 level." He continued, "If market pressure intensifies, whether $1,800 holds as support will be important," adding that "if that level breaks, selling could spread across altcoins."

AltcoinVector also said, "Even in a phase where downside pressure continues across altcoins, Ethereum is showing relatively limited declines," adding that "while about 58% of all altcoins are still under correction pressure, Ethereum’s momentum is at a neutral level." It added, "If Bitcoin rises, Ethereum may show relatively greater upside potential, and conversely, even on downside moves, its declines may be limited."

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io