Trump: 'High chance of Iran deal on the 6th'…Questions over feasibility

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran are ongoing, that there is a high chance of concluding them by the 6th, and that he would seize Iran’s oil.
It reported that because the military centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not under control, a ceasefire or end to the war would be difficult and guerrilla-style fighting is likely to continue.
With the possibility of blockades of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being raised, concerns are growing over disruptions to global energy and grain shipping routes for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), among others.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

US President Donald Trump said on the 5th (local time) that talks with Iran are ongoing and that there is a high chance they will be concluded by the next day. He also said he would seize Iran’s oil.

In an interview with Fox News that day, asked about prospects for reaching an agreement with Iran, Trump said, “I think there’s a high chance tomorrow (the 6th). Negotiations are under way now.”

He added, “If they don’t agree quickly, I’m considering wiping out everything (in Iran) and taking the oil.” Trump has argued since the 1980s that Iran’s oil should be taken.

Earlier that morning, Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social that he would unleash a large-scale attack on key infrastructure such as Iranian power plants and bridges on the 7th, pressing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and to clinch a deal. He hurled profanities, writing, “Open the fucking strait right now, you crazies. Otherwise you’ll live in hell. Praise Allah,” among other vulgar remarks.

Trump first threatened an attack on Iranian power plants on the 21st of last month and later delayed the timing twice. The current deadline is 8 p.m. Eastern time on the 6th (9 a.m. Korea time on the 7th).

It is unclear whether his claim that a deal with Iran is close is accurate. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged in an Al Jazeera interview that he has been exchanging messages with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, but few assess that Iran’s administration, including Araghchi, controls the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Even if there are forces in Iran that want negotiations, it would be difficult to halt hostilities without reining in the military centered on the IRGC. As Iran’s leadership has been successively eliminated, Iranian media report that missile-launch authority has been delegated to regional units. This not only makes it unclear who can decide on a ceasefire or an end to the war, but also suggests that even if negotiations proceed, guerrilla-style fighting could continue.

Iran has continued missile and drone attacks against US forces, Israel, Kuwait and others. The IRGC claimed it “struck Israel’s Haifa refinery, the Habshan gas facility and Al Ruwais petrochemical plant in the UAE, the Sitra plant in Bahrain, and the Shuaiba facility in Kuwait,” calling it “retaliation for attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure.” It also hinted it could further blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—another chokepoint at the entrance to the Red Sea—after the Strait of Hormuz.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, recently wrote on X (formerly Twitter): “How much of global shipments of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), wheat, rice and fertilizer passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?” and “Which countries and companies ship the most through this strait?” Iranian media reported that Ghalibaf was signaling the possibility of further pressure on the US and Israel by blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Washington=Lee Sang-eun, correspondent selee@hankyung.com