Summary
- On ceasefire hopes in the Middle East, global equities including the MSCI Emerging Markets equity index and U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures moved higher, the report said.
- Brent futures and WTI futures fell 1.89% and 1.85%, respectively, marking a drop in international oil prices that supported gains in Asian equities, including the KOSPI and the Nikkei, it said.
- With increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, talks of a 45-day ceasefire, and President Trump’s “midnight on the 7th” deal deadline, markets are focusing on the risk premium and the potential for easing pressure on oil prices, the report said.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Oil prices fall, Asian equities including Korea and Japan rise
Trump sets deal deadline for “midnight on the 7th”
Signs of recovering traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also bolster sentiment
On the 6th (local time), global equities advanced on expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
As oil pared some of its early gains, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.36% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.55%.
The Japanese yen and the Korean won also strengthened against the U.S. dollar. The won rose 0.5% to 1,502.50 per dollar, while the yen gained 0.13% from the previous day to 159.35 per dollar. The MSCI Emerging Markets equity index jumped as much as 0.7% and its currency index rose as much as 0.3%.
U.S. S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures gained 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures also added 0.1%.
Brent futures were down 1.89% from the previous session at $106.97 a barrel as of 10:48 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time (GMT), while WTI futures fell 1.85% to $109.48.
According to Axios and Reuters, the United States and Iran have each received a ceasefire plan to end hostilities. The peace plan is said to include a two-step approach: an immediate ceasefire and a comprehensive agreement to be finalized within 15–20 days.
A source cited by Reuters said Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was in “overnight” contact with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
In an interview with Reuters, a senior Iranian official said Iran would not reopen the strait as part of a temporary ceasefire and would not set a deadline for reviewing the proposal. The official added that the United States is not prepared for a permanent ceasefire.
Axios previously reported, citing U.S., Israeli and regional sources, that the United States, Iran and regional mediators were discussing a 45-day ceasefire as part of a two-stage agreement that could lead to a permanent end to the war.
On the 5th, President Donald Trump posted an expletive-laden message on his social media platform Truth Social, warning of additional strikes on Iran’s energy and transportation infrastructure if Iran failed to reach a deal by the 7th and reopen the strait. He later followed up with a more specific deadline: Tuesday 8 p.m. Eastern Time, or 00:00 GMT on the 7th.
Iran, for its part, refused to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later told Fox News in an interview that he was hopeful a deal was likely by Monday.
According to Bloomberg, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been gradually increasing, with vessels from Japan and France among those passing through last week. Attention is focused on whether the pressure on oil prices could ease.
Vivek Rajpal, an Asia strategist at Singapore-based JB Drax Honore, said, “Today’s price action suggests the market is responding to ceasefire hopes.” He added, “Given that the risk premium surged sharply in March, markets at current valuation levels appear to be factoring in the possibility of de-escalation.”
Some markets, including China, London, Hong Kong and Australia, were closed for a holiday.
Kim Jung-ah, contributing reporter kja@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
