Bitcoin Faces Warning Signs at $76,000 as Exchange Inflows Surge

Bitcoin has extended its recent rebound, but rising exchange inflows and deteriorating on-chain indicators are increasing the risk of short-term profit-taking.

The Block reported on May 15 that on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said in a report that selling pressure is building as Bitcoin enters the $76,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin rose above $76,000 intraday, its highest level since early February, before paring gains to around $74,800.

Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, said the area near $76,000 is a key resistance zone where investors are nearing breakeven, increasing their incentive to sell. He added that in January 2026, Bitcoin's rebound was capped in the same range before the price turned lower.

If a similar level of selling pressure develops now, the pattern could repeat, Moreno said.

A sharp rise in Bitcoin flowing onto exchanges was identified as a key warning sign. Hourly inflows climbed to about 11,000 BTC, the highest since December 2025. Investors typically move assets to exchanges when preparing to sell, making the trend a signal of near-term downside pressure.

Moreno said a short-term price correction occurred in March 2026 after hourly inflows reached 9,000 BTC and the share of large deposits expanded to 63%.

The latest increase in inflows was driven largely by whale investors. The average deposit size per transaction sent to exchanges rose to 2.25 BTC, the highest since July 2024, which CryptoQuant attributed to a series of deposits of more than 1,000 BTC to Binance. The share of large deposits also surged from below 10% to above 40% over several days.

Moreno said periods when the share of large deposits exceeds 40% have historically been associated with stronger short-term selling pressure. He added that the pattern resembles January 2026, when the average deposit size per transaction rose to about 2 BTC and Bitcoin later plunged from $100,000 to $60,000.

Realized profits also suggest the potential for additional selling pressure. Daily realized profit is running at about $500 million. While still below $1 billion, that level marks the stage just before profit-taking accelerated during past bear-market periods, according to Moreno.

He said daily realized profit could exceed $1 billion if Bitcoin holds above $76,000 or breaks through the $76,800 on-chain realized price. That could trigger more selling pressure and increase the risk of a slowdown in the rally or a price reversal.