JPMorgan Raises South Korea 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.0% on Chip Supercycle
Summary
- JPMorgan raised its forecast for South Korea's economic growth this year to 3.0%% from 2.2%%.
- The upgrade reflected expectations for a semiconductor supercycle and sharp increases in exports and facility investment.
- If growth reaches 3.0%%, it would be the highest since 2021, when the economy expanded 4.6%%, and would far exceed forecasts from the OECD and the IMF.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
JPMorgan now expects South Korea's economy to grow 3.0% this year, raising its forecast on expectations that exports and facility investment will increase sharply on the back of a semiconductor supercycle.
In an economic outlook report released on April 23, JPMorgan economist Park Seok-gil lifted his 2026 growth forecast for South Korea to 3.0% from 2.2%. The new estimate is higher than forecasts from the Bank of Korea, the government, investment banks and international organizations. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last month cut its forecast for South Korea's growth to 1.7% from 2.1%, while the International Monetary Fund put this year's growth at 1.9%.
If growth exceeds 3.0% this year, as JPMorgan projects, it would be the fastest pace since 2021, when the economy expanded 4.6% on a rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic. It would also top South Korea's estimated potential growth rate in the mid- to high-1% range this year.
JPMorgan raised its forecast after first-quarter growth far exceeded market expectations and exports and facility investment came in stronger than expected.
Kim Ik-hwan, Hankyung.com reporter, lovepen@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
