Bitcoin Reclaims 116 Million Won as US Spot ETFs Draw $2.44 Billion in April

Bitcoin Gets Relief as Iran Ceasefire Is Extended

Trump’s Remarks Remain the Wild Card

Back at 116 Million Won for First Time in Three Months

US ETFs Draw $2.44 Billion This Month

Fed Rate-Cut Outlook Adds Momentum

Bullish Calls Spread

US-Iran Peace Negotiations Remain Deadlocked

Some Say It’s Too Early for Optimism

Bitcoin has risen since President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran. Fresh institutional inflows have fueled expectations for further gains. Still, some analysts say the token could reverse lower because geopolitical tensions have not fully eased and profit-taking could emerge.

◇ US spot ETFs post $2.44 billion of net inflows this month

According to Upbit, Bitcoin recovered the 116 million won level on April 23. It was the first time in about three months that the cryptocurrency had returned to that range after falling into the 90 million won range earlier this year. Since then, it has held in the mid- to upper-115 million won range, extending a gradual recovery.

Bitcoin had traded sideways around 100 million won since February as the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment. It has resumed an upward trajectory this month. The token started April 1 at 103.13 million won and broke above 110 million won on April 15, before attempting to regain the 120 million won range. The advance has also held in dollar terms. CoinMarketCap data show Bitcoin fell to $62,704 on Feb. 6, then climbed to $74,855 on March 17, a rebound of more than $12,000 in roughly a month. After reaching $78,264 on April 24, it was trading in the mid-$77,000 range.

Institutional buying through US spot exchange-traded funds appears to have driven the rally. Crypto data provider SoSoValue said US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted inflows for four consecutive weeks and recorded net inflows in eight of the past nine weeks. The funds posted $1.32 billion of net inflows in March, their first monthly net inflow this year. In April, that pace accelerated, with net inflows reaching $2.44 billion so far.

◇ Bullish Bitcoin forecasts gain traction

Optimism around Bitcoin is growing as its appeal as an investment asset increases. In a recent report, market research firm Tiger Research set a 12-month Bitcoin price target of $143,000. The firm cited record global liquidity, renewed institutional inflows and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its rate-cut stance after the impact of the Iran war eases. “If three conditions align — Bitcoin breaking above the average entry price of long-term holders, sustained ETF inflows and a policy pivot by the Fed after geopolitical risks ease — the target is well within reach,” Yoon Seung-sik, head of research at Tiger Research, said.

Analysts also said Bitcoin’s move above the key $75,000 threshold could make this rally faster than past ones. “If Bitcoin clearly breaks above $75,000, that would not be a simple price gain but a structural breakout,” Marty Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, said. It would mark a shift into a new uptrend, he added. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could rise as high as $85,000 this month.

Others say it is too early to turn bullish. Peace negotiations between the US and Iran remain sluggish, raising the possibility that the deadlock could drag on. Trump’s comments are another risk because the market has proved highly sensitive to his rhetoric. On April 2, a day after Trump made hardline remarks on Iran, Bitcoin briefly fell below 100 million won on Upbit during intraday trading. In overseas markets, it also dropped below $67,000, extending the slide.

Kim Soo-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter ksoohyun@hankyung.com