Trump Softens View on Prediction Markets, Says US Can’t Fall Behind

Minseung Kang

Summary

President Trump said prediction markets are something “smart people like” and that the US could fall behind if it does not embrace them.
Token Terminal said trading volume on major platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi reached $23.6 billion as of March.
Market participants say Trump’s latest shift in stance could affect the future direction of regulation and how the US brings the industry into the regulatory mainstream.

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President Donald Trump has stepped back from his earlier criticism of prediction markets, signaling a shift in his stance.

Cointelegraph reported on April 28 that Trump told reporters in Florida that prediction markets are something “smart people like” and that the US could fall behind if other countries adopt them and America does not.

The comments contrasted with remarks he made just days earlier, when he said he did not like the concept and was not satisfied with it. At the time, Trump also cast prediction markets in a negative light, saying the world was turning into a casino.

Prediction markets are platforms that allow users to bet on the outcome of specific events. User participation and trading volumes have risen rapidly in recent months. Token Terminal said trading volume on major platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi reached $23.6 billion as of March.

Political interests are also intertwined. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, invested in Polymarket in August 2025 and joined the platform as an adviser. He also serves in an advisory role at rival platform Kalshi.

Trump Media, which is linked to the president, has also said it plans to introduce prediction-market features on its social media platform Truth Social through a partnership with Crypto.com. Since taking office, Trump has transferred his stake to a trust managed by Trump Jr.

Market participants say Trump’s change in tone could influence the future direction of regulation. They are also watching how the US moves to bring the industry into the regulatory mainstream as the sector expands globally.