Forecast Trend Report by Period


Bets SOXX Will Fall 30%
Buys Software Stocks Including Microsoft and Adobe

Investor Michael Burry, featured in “The Big Short” for his bet against the US housing market, has taken a bearish position on semiconductor stocks, saying now is the time to sell any long holdings in the sector.
In a Substack post after the market close on April 24, Burry wrote that he had bought “quite a lot” of January 2027 $330 put options on the iShares Semiconductor ETF, known by its ticker SOXX. With the fund trading at about $455, the position implies a bet on a decline of roughly 30%.
“What’s happening now is technical,” Burry wrote, arguing that SOXX’s 18-session winning streak was driven more by technical factors than by fundamentals. The ETF had risen for 18 straight trading days through April 24, which led him to conclude the rally was overheated. SOXX’s relative strength index climbed to about 85 that day, the highest since January 2011.
The trade is being viewed less as a broad market wager and more as a shift from hardware to software. Alongside the SOXX put options, Burry also disclosed new long positions in Microsoft, Adobe, PayPal Holdings and MSCI. That suggests he expects semiconductor shares to retreat after a sharp run-up while seeing room for gains in software stocks that have recently fallen steeply.
Burry wrote that software stocks slid after investors interpreted earnings from IBM and ServiceNow as evidence of AI-related threats. He added that he had not sold a single share of his software holdings. Stocktwits said Burry, known for contrarian value investing, has repeatedly voiced concern about what he views as an unsustainable AI boom.
Even so, he remained cautious on the broader market. Burry described the current stock rally as an unusually steep and persistent advance with no precedent in US stock-market history. He added that he could not imagine what kind of top might form after such a vertical rise and said about 5% of his portfolio is held in put options to prepare for volatility.
Kim Dong-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter 3code@hankyung.com

Korea Economic Daily
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