Forecast Trend Report by Period
Wall Street traders are assigning higher odds to a Federal Reserve rate increase this year than to a rate cut, highlighting a rapid shift in monetary-policy expectations.
Walter Bloomberg reported on April 29 that the interest-rate futures market was pricing in about an 11% chance of a Fed rate hike.
That was up sharply from 5% earlier the same day and 0% the previous day.
By contrast, the odds of a rate cut remained around 2%.
The shift reflects hawkish remarks from Fed officials and persistent concerns about inflation.
Some Fed officials pushed back against an easing stance, while Chair Jerome Powell also signaled the possibility of adjusting related language in the future.
Markets are watching expectations for the rate path shift away from cuts toward a pause or even a hike. Inflation trends and future Fed comments remain the key variables.
JH Kim
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