Polymarket Odds of Clarity Act Passing This Year Jump to 67%

The odds that the US crypto market-structure bill known as the Clarity Act will be enacted this year are rising.

Polymarket data on May 1 showed the probability on a contract titled “Clarity Act officially takes effect in 2026” surged 21 percentage points in the past 24 hours to 67%.

The contract resolves to “Yes” if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or H.R. 3633, passes both chambers of Congress and is signed by the president into law by Dec. 31.

A key reason for the rise in expectations is a compromise between the crypto industry and banks. Banks had lobbied for a full ban on allowing exchanges to pay interest to simple stablecoin holders, arguing that such a provision could trigger large outflows from the traditional deposit system.

The agreement removes what had been the biggest obstacle to advancing the Senate bill. Under the deal, stablecoin issuers cannot pay customers deposit interest in any form, including cash or tokens. Loyalty programs that are economically or functionally equivalent to banks’ interest-bearing deposits are also fully prohibited. The measures are intended to keep stablecoins from competing directly with core banking products.

At the same time, incentives similar to credit-card points or cash back will still be allowed. Legitimate rewards programs tied to real transactions or actual activity, rather than interest payments, will be exempt from the restriction.

Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad said the final version added some limits related to interest payments. Even so, users still have room to receive rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual use cases.