Clarity Act Seen With 62% Odds of Enactment by End-2026 as Policy Uncertainty Eases

Minseung Kang

Summary

According to Polymarket, the odds that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or Clarity Act, will pass and be signed into law by the end of 2026 are about 62%%.
The US Senate's effort to accelerate legislative discussions by reaching a compromise on stablecoin regulation is fueling expectations that policy uncertainty will ease.
With deliberations on the bill poised to resume after months of delays, the industry is also growing more optimistic about progress on the legislation, especially among major companies such as Coinbase.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

The probability that a US bill setting market-structure rules for digital assets will pass this year has climbed above 50%, reflecting expectations that policy uncertainty will ease.

On May 4, prediction market Polymarket put the odds that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the Clarity Act, will pass Congress and be signed into law by the end of 2026 at about 62%.

The US Senate has recently stepped up legislative discussions by working out a compromise on stablecoin regulation. Under the proposal, interest payments backed by reserves would be restricted, while rewards tied to platform use would be allowed.

Prospects for a resumption in bill deliberations after months of delays have also helped ease some policy risk. The industry is interpreting that as a sign of growing expectations for progress on the legislation, particularly among major companies such as Coinbase.