Polymarket Prices 69% Odds of Clarity Act Passage in 2026 as Bank Pushback Persists

The odds of a US digital-asset market-structure bill passing in 2026 have increased, according to Polymarket. Uncertainty remains, however, as banks and the crypto industry continue to clash over stablecoin rules.

Data from prediction-market platform Polymarket on May 5 showed about a 69% chance that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or Clarity Act, will pass Congress and be signed into law in 2026.

US lawmakers have recently continued legislative talks around a compromise on stablecoin interest payments. The proposal would limit interest paid from reserves while allowing some rewards tied to platform use.

Banks argue the provision does not go far enough to curb deposit outflows. Major financial groups including the American Bankers Association say the bill's wording could effectively leave room for crypto platforms to offer deposit-like products and needs to be revised.

Even as those conflicts persist, expectations for a resumption of bill deliberations are helping ease some policy risk. Markets appear to be reflecting hopes for greater regulatory clarity, particularly for major operators such as Coinbase.