CIA Says Iran Could Withstand US Strait of Hormuz Blockade for Up to Four Months
Summary
- The Central Intelligence Agency said Iran could withstand a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for about 90 to 120 days.
- The report said Iran has the resilience to avoid an immediate economic collapse by using crude stockpiles and alternative smuggling routes.
- Markets are focused on the possibility of prolonged Middle East tensions and the risk of energy supply disruptions, with the duration of the blockade and the scale of the military response seen as the key variables.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
US intelligence officials have given a relatively strong assessment of Iran’s ability to withstand sanctions and a blockade, underscoring the risk of prolonged tensions in the Middle East.
Citing Walter Bloomberg, the Central Intelligence Agency assessed on May 7 that Iran could endure a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for about 90 to 120 days.
According to multiple people familiar with the matter, the report said Iran could hold out even longer depending on how the situation develops.
It also found that Iran retains a substantial portion of its missile and drone capabilities despite continued attacks by the US and Israel.
The report said Iran has enough resilience to avoid an immediate economic collapse by drawing on crude stockpiles and alternative smuggling routes.
The White House, by contrast, argues that the blockade is already dealing severe damage to Iran’s economy.
Markets are watching for signs that Middle East tensions could persist and disrupt energy supplies. The duration of the blockade and the scale of any military response remain the key variables.
JH Kim
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