Summary
- CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s recent gain of more than 20%% was a “temporary rebound in a bear market” and that it has entered a profit-taking zone.
- It said STH-SOPR, cumulative net profit on a 30-day moving-average basis, and unrealized profit margins have all improved, but conditions still reflect a bear-market rally.
- The analysis said a near-term correction could be delayed by firm futures demand and limited exchange inflows, though correction risk remains high and the market has not yet reached a selling top.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin’s recent advance may come under mounting pressure from profit-taking as the token extends its rebound, according to CryptoQuant.
The Block reported on May 8 that Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, characterized the latest move as a “temporary rebound in a bear market.” Bitcoin rose more than 20% in April to a three-month high as macroeconomic pressures eased and demand for perpetual futures surged.
Daily realized profit-taking totaled 14,600 BTC as of May 4, the highest level since December, Moreno said. STH-SOPR, a gauge of whether short-term holders are selling at a profit, climbed to 1.016 and has remained above 1.0 since mid-April. That indicates Bitcoin has entered a clear profit-taking zone.
Cumulative net realized profit on a 30-day moving average reached 20,000 BTC. The measure turned positive for the first time since December after posting net realized losses of as much as 398,000 BTC in February and March. Moreno called the shift from net losses to net profits a structural turning point. Still, he said the scale remains consistent with a bear-market rally, noting that net profits historically reached 130,000 BTC to 200,000 BTC during past bull-market transitions.
Unrealized profit margins, another indicator of potential selling pressure, also remain elevated. After dropping to as low as negative 29% in February and March, the measure has rebounded to about 18%. Higher unrealized gains typically increase investors’ incentive to lock in profits, raising the risk of a price correction.
Any pullback may take time to emerge. Demand for perpetual futures remains firm, and digital-asset inflows to exchanges are still limited. While correction risk is high, Bitcoin has not yet reached a level that would mark a selling top, Moreno said.
Bitcoin was trading at $80,320 on Binance’s USDT market, up 0.6% from a day earlier.
Doohyun Hwang
cow5361@bloomingbit.ioKEEP CALM AND HODL🍀
