KOSPI Profit Forecast Raised to $758 Billion for 2027 as Chip Boom Fuels 10,000 Call

Operating profit forecasts for South Korea’s KOSPI-listed companies have been revised sharply higher again, with the total now seen topping $612.7 billion this year and the KOSPI index itself projected to break 10,000. The upgrades are being driven by Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., whose earnings estimates keep climbing as an AI-driven semiconductor supercycle gains momentum and is increasingly viewed as a multiyear hypercycle.

FnGuide said on May 11 that combined operating profit this year for 170 KOSPI-listed companies covered by at least three brokerage forecasts is estimated at 849.5262 trillion won, or about $612.7 billion, on a consolidated basis. That is up 25% from 676.8813 trillion won a month earlier. The same companies are forecast to post 1,050.2303 trillion won, or about $757.6 billion, in operating profit next year. That would be 23.6% higher than this year’s estimate and 287.1% above the finalized 2025 figure of 271.2698 trillion won.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are leading the surge in earnings forecasts. Estimates for the two chipmakers have been lifted on the back of soaring average selling prices for memory chips and a series of long-term supply agreements, even as concerns over whether the stocks have peaked linger. Combined brokerage forecasts put their operating profit at 587.6624 trillion won this year and 768.5790 trillion won next year. That amounts to 69% of total operating profit this year and 73% next year.

The revisions have been so rapid that valuations have actually fallen despite the recent jump in their share prices. Over the past three months, combined operating profit estimates for the two companies have risen 90.4%, outpacing the 70.1% gain in Samsung Electronics shares over the same period. Their 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratios stand at 5.8 times for Samsung Electronics and 5.1 times for SK Hynix.

Global investment banks say the semiconductor upcycle at the two companies will not end with this year’s rally but will extend for several years as a hypercycle. Goldman Sachs wrote in a May 8 report that Samsung Electronics could generate $344.5 billion in operating profit in 2028. JPMorgan, in a South Korea market strategy report published on May 11, said memory-chip average selling prices and shipments would both keep rising through 2028 and set a KOSPI target of 10,000.

The KOSPI closed 4.32% higher at 7,822.24 on May 11, helped by heavy buying from retail investors. That left the benchmark just 178 points, or 2.27%, shy of 8,000.

Jeon Beom-jin and Kang Jin-gyu, Korea Economic Daily reporters, forward@hankyung.com