Bitcoin Tops $80,000 as Spot Buying, Long-Term Holders Signal Healthier Market Structure

Bitcoin is showing signs of a healthier market structure after breaking above $80,000, with the latest advance driven by spot buying and accumulation by long-term holders rather than a buildup in derivatives leverage, Bitfinex Alpha said.

In a report released May 11, Bitfinex Alpha said Bitcoin gained about 12% in April, its strongest monthly return in the past year. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by about $198 billion over the same period.

A key shift came earlier in May when Bitcoin climbed above $80,000. According to the report, BTC moved past that level for the first time since January and broke through a major sell zone in the $78,000 to $79,000 range.

Bitcoin has also reclaimed the True Market Mean, a key indicator based on realized average cost, at about $79,800, Bitfinex said. That marks a meaningful improvement in market structure.

The rally appears to be rooted in stronger spot demand, not rising leverage.

Spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, has surged since May 8, indicating buyers are aggressively absorbing sell-side liquidity, the report said. It added that ETF inflows and accumulation in the spot market are leading the move higher.

Bitfinex also estimated that BTC holdings by conviction buyers have recently approached 4 million tokens. It said that marks the biggest increase since the Covid-19 pandemic.

On the macro backdrop, the report described the economy as entering a "low-hire, low-fire" phase, with hiring slowing but no sharp increase in layoffs.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April, topping market expectations of 55,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%.

Consumer sentiment, however, fell to 48.2, the lowest level since the data series began in 1952.

Bitfinex said divergences among economic indicators are widening, with consumption supported by increased credit spending and a low savings rate.