Summary
- Kalshi data showed the probability of a rate hike before July 2027 rising to 53%%.
- The report said concerns over prolonged Fed tightening have grown after the latest US consumer price index (CPI) came in above expectations.
- Kalshi said market views are divided over whether the Fed will raise rates or hold rates unchanged for longer ahead of its next monetary policy decision in about 49 days.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Market bets on another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase are gaining momentum.
Walter Bloomberg, citing data from prediction-market platform Kalshi on May 12, said the probability of a Fed rate hike before July 2027 had climbed to 53%.
The odds rose rapidly in recent trading.
The latest stronger-than-expected US consumer price index data has renewed concern that the Fed may keep monetary policy tight for longer.
Kalshi shows about 49 days remaining until the next major monetary policy decision. Market participants are split on whether the Fed will raise rates sooner than expected or leave them unchanged for an extended period.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
